GAR 2015 Main Report

146

Part II - Chapter 7

( Source: Salgado et al., 2014a and 2014b.)

Relative AAL loss distribution for the building stock of Manizales

Box 7.9 Risk assessment informing a comprehensive disaster risk management strategy in Manizales, Colombia

In Manizales, Colombia, a full set of probabilistic risk assessments were carried out to develop a comprehensive disaster risk management strategy. This included retrofitting existing structures, updating a municipal earthquake insurance scheme and performing a cost-benefit analysis of structural risk reduction measures and land-use planning. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment was used to calibrate the national earthquake building code to local seismic micro-zones for both building stock and the water and sewage network.

Flood hazard for the Chinchiná basin was assessed using 30 years of rainfall data. Landslide risk analysis based on detailed information about land use, topography and geological information was used to support urban planning applications.

In addition, probabilistic volcanic ash hazard was analysed for the Ruiz Volcano located 30 km south-east of Manizales.

Ultimately, the Manizales voluntary municipal insurance scheme was based on this multi-hazard risk assessment. In this innovative scheme, middle and high-income groups underwrite policies, while low-income homeowners are subsidized by other homeowners and the local government, which acts as an intermediary.

Volcanic ash thickness hazard map (m)

rather than by the end-users and decision-makers who need access to targeted information in different formats. All too often, risk information is driven by supply rather than demand, meaning that even when decision-makers are aware that they require risk information, it is often not available in a usable form.

Finance ministers, for example, might be interested in metrics such as annual average loss

(AAL) or probable maximum loss (PML) in order to estimate the potential fiscal impact of disasters or the costs and benefits of investing in disaster risk reduction. They need numbers, not maps. In contrast, planners preparing local land-use or zoning plans will require hazard and risk maps rather than numbers ( GAR 13 paper

GFDRR, 2014a

GFDRR (Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery). 2014a,Understanding Risk: The Evolution of Disaster Risk Assessment since 2005, Background Paper prepared for the 2015 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR..
Click here to view this GAR paper.

). Global risk indices or assessments are useful for comparing risk levels across countries but are too coarsegrained to inform national and local planning. In

	146 Part II - Chapter 7 ( Source: Salgado et al., 2014a and 2014b.) Relative AAL loss distribution for the building stock of Manizales Box 7.9 Risk assessment informing a comprehensive disaster risk management strategy in Manizales, Colombia In Manizales, Colombia, a full set of probabilistic risk assessments were carried out to develop a comprehensive disaster risk management strategy. This included retrofitting existing structures, updating a municipal earthquake insurance scheme and performing a cost-benefit analysis of structural risk reduction measures and land-use planning. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment was used to calibrate the national earthquake building code to local seismic micro-zones for both building stock and the water and sewage network. Flood hazard for the Chinchiná basin was assessed using 30 years of rainfall data. Landslide risk analysis based on detailed information about land use, topography and geological information was used to support urban planning applications. In addition, probabilistic volcanic ash hazard was analysed for the Ruiz Volcano located 30 km south-east of Manizales. Ultimately, the Manizales voluntary municipal insurance scheme was based on this multi-hazard risk assessment. In this innovative scheme, middle and high-income groups underwrite policies, while low-income homeowners are subsidized by other homeowners and the local government, which acts as an intermediary. Volcanic ash thickness hazard map (m) rather than by the end-users and decision-makers who need access to targeted information in different formats. All too often, risk information is driven by supply rather than demand, meaning that even when decision-makers are aware that they require risk information, it is often not available in a usable form. Finance ministers, for example, might be interested in metrics such as annual average loss (AAL) or probable maximum loss (PML) in order to estimate the potential fiscal impact of disasters or the costs and benefits of investing in disaster risk reduction. They need numbers, not maps. In contrast, planners preparing local land-use or zoning plans will require hazard and risk maps rather than numbers (GFDRR, 2014a x GFDRR (Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery). 2014a,Understanding Risk: The Evolution of Disaster Risk Assessment since 2005, Background Paper prepared for the 2015 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR.. Click here to view this GAR paper. ). Global risk indices or assessments are useful for comparing risk levels across countries but are too coarsegrained to inform national and local planning. In	Page 1 Page 10 Page 20 Page 30 Page 40 Page 50 Page 60 Page 70 Page 80 Page 90 Page 100 Page 110 Page 120 Page 130 Page 136 Page 137 Page 138 Page 139 Page 140 Page 141 Page 142 Page 143 Page 144 Page 145 Page 146 Page 147 ->Page 148 Page 149 Page 150 Page 151 Page 152 Page 153 Page 154 Page 155 Page 156 Page 157 Page 158 Page 159 Page 160 Page 170 Page 180 Page 190 Page 200 Page 210 Page 220 Page 230 Page 240 Page 250 Page 260 Page 270 Page 280 Page 290 Page 300 Page 310