Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2015
Making development sustainable: The future of disaster risk management

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Part II - Chapter 7
( Source: Salgado et al., 2014a and 2014b.)
Relative AAL loss distribution for the building stock of Manizales
Box 7.9 Risk assessment informing a comprehensive disaster risk management strategy in Manizales, Colombia
In Manizales, Colombia, a full set of probabilistic risk assessments were carried out to develop a comprehensive disaster risk management strategy. This included retrofitting existing structures, updating a municipal earthquake insurance scheme and performing a cost-benefit analysis of structural risk reduction measures and land-use planning. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment was used to calibrate the national earthquake building code to local seismic micro-zones for both building stock and the water and sewage network.

Flood hazard for the ChinchinĂ¡ basin was assessed using 30 years of rainfall data. Landslide risk analysis based on detailed information about land use, topography and geological information was used to support urban planning applications.

In addition, probabilistic volcanic ash hazard was analysed for the Ruiz Volcano located 30 km south-east of Manizales.

Ultimately, the Manizales voluntary municipal insurance scheme was based on this multi-hazard risk assessment. In this innovative scheme, middle and high-income groups underwrite policies, while low-income homeowners are subsidized by other homeowners and the local government, which acts as an intermediary.
Volcanic ash thickness hazard map (m)
rather than by the end-users and decision-makers who need access to targeted information in different formats. All too often, risk information is driven by supply rather than demand, meaning that even when decision-makers are aware that they require risk information, it is often not available in a usable form.
Finance ministers, for example, might be interested in metrics such as annual average loss
(AAL) or probable maximum loss (PML) in order to estimate the potential fiscal impact of disasters or the costs and benefits of investing in disaster risk reduction. They need numbers, not maps. In contrast, planners preparing local land-use or zoning plans will require hazard and risk maps rather than numbers (GAR 13 paperGFDRR, 2014a

GAR13 Reference GFDRR (Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery). 2014a,Understanding Risk: The Evolution of Disaster Risk Assessment since 2005, Background Paper prepared for the 2015 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR..
Click here to view this GAR paper.
). Global risk indices or assessments are useful for comparing risk levels across countries but are too coarsegrained to inform national and local planning. In
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