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  • Estimating recent local impacts of sea-level rise on current real-estate losses: A housing market case study in Miami-Dade, Florida
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Estimating recent local impacts of sea-level rise on current real-estate losses: A housing market case study in Miami-Dade, Florida

Source(s):  Springer

Sea-Level Rise (SLR) projections from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers indicate increasing, and imminent, risk to coastal communities from tidal flooding and hurricane storm surge. Building on recent research related to the potential demographic impacts of such changes, localized flooding projections in the Miami Beach area and projected economic losses associated with this rise in projected SLR, this research investigates the accrued current cost, in terms of real-estate dollars lost, due to recurrent tidal flooding and projected increases of flooding in Miami-Dade County. Most directly related to this line of research, Keenan et al. have recently produced results indicating that climate gentrification is taking place in Miami, FL with higher elevations in flood prone areas appreciating at a higher rate.

In that vein of thinking, the authors of this paper seek to answer a question posed by such research: What is the actual accrued loss to sea-level rise over the recent past? To answer this question, the report replicates well-documented estimation methods by combining publicly available sea-level rise projections, tide gauge trends and property lot elevation data to identify areas regularly at risk of flooding. Combining recent patterns of flooding inundation with future forecasts, the authors find that properties projected to be inundated with tidal flooding in 2032 have lost $3.08 each year on each square foot of living area, and properties near roads that will be inundated with tidal flooding in 2032 have lost $3.71 each year on each square foot of living area. These effects total over $465 million in lost real-estate market value between 2005 and 2016 in the Miami-Dade area.



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  • Estimating recent local impacts of sea-level rise on current real-estate losses: A housing market case study in Miami-Dade, Florida
  • Publication date 2018
  • Author(s) McAlpine, Steven A.; Porter, Jeremy R.
  • Number of pages 25 p.
  • ISBN/ISSN 1573-7829 (ISSN)

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