Pakistan: Disaster, social catastrophe
By Dr. Akmal Hussain
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With agricultural growth in Pakistan critically dependent on monsoon rainfall, increased variability in its timing and magnitude, resulting from global warming, is adversely affecting the rate and stability of economic growth. This instability is accentuated by the fact that increasing irrigation water shortages are making farmers, even in the irrigated areas, more dependent on adequate and timely monsoon rains. (Water availability has declined to less than 1,100 cubic metres per person per year now compared with 5,000 cubic metres per person per year in 1951).
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It is clear that unless urgent measures are taken now, Pakistan can face food shortages in the decades ahead. Three sets of policy initiatives are of critical importance: (i) development of heat resistant varieties of food grains and an institutional environment for facilitating widespread adoption of these seeds. (ii) the creation of a food import emergency fund within the SBP foreign exchange reserves. (iii) develop the organisational capacity and design institutions to manage a food crisis — if and when it occurs. This includes constructing fiberglass silos in every tehsil for the storage of emergency food supplies that are released in case of a food crisis. Procedures should be put into place to entitle the local population to access these food supplies quickly.
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Climate change is upon us and Pakistan is more vulnerable than most countries to its potentially disastrous consequences. These include increased instability of agricultural output due to greater variability in the monsoons; water scarcity; the direct effect of higher temperatures on crop yields; food shortages; and economic shocks from extreme climatic events. These phenomena can place intense stress on both the economy and society. They also present an unprecedented challenge of governance in terms of designing innovative policy and efficient implementation. Therefore, the organisational capacity-building of the government, and the development of institutional procedures to combine government efforts with community-based initiatives to face environmental challenges ahead, are an urgent necessity.
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