Below normal rainfall predicted for several Pacific nations
Climate forecasters are predicting below normal rainfall levels for several Pacific Island nations over the next three months on top of an already unusually dry period.
New Zealand's National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) says New Caledonia and Vanuatu, which have recently experienced well below normal rainfall levels in some areas, will continue to experience below normal levels.
In what might be a slight reprieve for Papua New Guinea, which has borne the brunt of El Niño, the forecast is for normal or below normal rainfall.
The Water Watch update says Solomon Islands will receive below normal rainfall for the next three months.
Fiji and Tonga will also receive below normal rainfall, while normal or below normal rainfall is forecast for the Southern Cook Islands.
Niue, the Federated States of Micronesia, and Wallis and Futuna will also get less rain than usual.
Meanwhile, tropical disturbance 09F currently lies just to the northeast of Vanuatu and is becoming more organized now with conditions remaining favourable for intensification over the next 2 or 3 days.
As it passes Fiji it is anticipated this system will be a Category 1 tropical cyclone, however it may well intensify into a much stronger cyclone south of Fiji.
A second tropical low over the Coral Sea northwest of New Caledonia is also strengthening, and the two circulations will continue to affect each other as they follow a slow but steady intensification pathway over the next few days.
Even though the centre may not pass over Fiji, patchy light rain will spread to all parts of the country tomorrow, and become heavy at times tomorrow night about the west as northerly winds strengthen. Winds may well be squally with gusts to gale force about the Mamanucas and Yasawas as the centre makes its closest approach to Fiji Friday morning, with winds gusting to 75 - 85 kmph (35-40 knots), however impacts of wind are, at this time, expected to be relatively minor.
Large swells from the north over the next day or so and combined with strong winds will make seas very rough over coastal waters. Those planning inter island passages between islands later in the week should consider other options. Rain continuing Friday night and through the weekend as the system moves south away from Fiji, with one or two heavy falls at times in the west.
SOURCE: RNZI/ NA DRAKI/PACNEWS