The project seeks to strengthen the institutional capacity of the National Planning Department of Colombia (DNP) for improved and strengthened social risk management in the country, by identifying and creating tools for a timely monitoring and response to crises and shocks. Three main components are proposed, aimed at providing appropriate options and instruments for social risk management:
• Diagnostics: This component aims at assessing both the risk profile of Colombia, as well as the response to shocks from a social perspective, using the recent natural disaster as a case study.
• Identifying good practices: this component has the objective of reviewing good practices in other countries in terms of social risk management, and assessing options that could be implemented in the country.
• Monitoring and Information Systems: This component will provide assistance to develop and put in place a geostatistics system, which georeferences layered information from DNP relevant to social risk management.
This TOR refers to component (1) of the project.
We are looking for a consultant to prepare a quantitative study analyzing the risk profile of Colombia, highlighting the links between past aggregate shocks and indicators of poverty in a multidimensional sense, by geographical region. The consultant will articulate the relation between risk exposure and poverty indicators, looking into both extensive and intensive risk.
Tasks and Products - Duties and Accountabilities
The CONSULTANT will report to Luis López-Calva and Aude-Sophie Rodella, the Task Team Leaders (TTL) of this work, and/or other members of the World Bank Coordinating Team. Working under the guidance of the TTL, the CONSULTANT will prepare a quantitative study analyzing the risk profile of Colombia, highlighting the links between past shocks (e.g., macroeconomic crisis, price shocks and natural disasters) and indicators of poverty, by geographical region.
• The study will be centered on the fifteen indicators included in the multidimensional poverty measure, as well as the monetary poverty indicators considered in the National Development Plan.
• The study will include the following sections:
- Extensive and Intensive Risks in Colombia: This section will provide an overview of the main shocks that have affected the country over time, specifying the most affected geographical areas. Shocks will include any type of aggregate shock (e.g., natural disaster, price shock, macroeconomic crisis). It will include risks both at the intensive and extensive margins.
- Vulnerability to Shocks: This section will detail the characteristics of the populations and geographical areas most affected by shocks in the past, highlighting aspects of vulnerability to these events.
- Shocks and Poverty: This section will provide correlations between the indicators of poverty in point (a) above and the various shocks, highlighting which of the relevant indicators have been more sensitive to shocks in the past, including a subregional differentiation and by type of shock.
- Summary matrix: The study will include a summary matrix with the relevant types of shocks, the most sensitive poverty variables to each type of shock, the geographical areas of high exposure and the most vulnerable population groups.
• The study will use data from household surveys (Encuesta de Calidad de Vida) and disaster data (such as the DesInventar database, produced by ISDR).
Skills and Qualifications
• Minimum MA degree in social sciences or field related to international development, preferably in economics/ development economics;
• Minimum of five years of relevant work experience in development work with an MA, with a preference for experience in Columbia
• Strong and proven quantitative skills; capacity in data management and statistics;
• Strong knowledge in either of the following software: STATA, SPSS, R, Eviews
• Experience working with ArcGIS and/or other mapping software
• Academic/research and operational background in disaster and risk management
• Field experience with an international organization, government agency or NGO will be an advantage;
• Proven capacity to work hard and produce quality products within tight deadlines;
• Excellent oral and written communication skills in Spanish;
The remuneration rate applicable will be determined taking into account the candidate experience and following the World Bank Remuneration Matrix for Consultants (STC/STT) and discussed with the candidate.