Physical climate risk and vulnerability assessment: India Analysis

This report is the first-ever detailed physical climate risk and vulnerability assessment for India’s cotton value chain. The study considers a wide range of climate hazards including thresholds that are specific to cotton production.  A total of 41 climate hazard indicators and socio-economic indicators were used to assess the risk not only to production but also to the wider cotton value chain.

The study focused on cotton cultivation and cotton processing in 13 districts across three of India's major cotton-growing states: Gujarat, Maharashtra and Telangana.

Key Findings:

• Climate change could expose one third of India's cotton growing regions to high risks from temperature increases, changes to rainfall patterns and extreme weather events by 2040.
• In the 2040s, cotton-growing regions across India will be subject to greater heat stress than under present-day conditions.
• In some regions, this increase in temperature is projected tobe coupled by an increase in water stress
• All districts are projected to experience an increase in the number of days at which labour productivity significantly decreases.
• Temperatures across Gujarat are projected to exceed the thermal tolerance limits for cotton more often than in other districts.
• Common areas of vulnerability across all districts include multidimensional poverty, low female work participation rates, low male and female literacy rates, and limited access to banking services, technology and information.