The future of livestock in Ethiopia: Opportunities and challenges in the face of uncertainty

This report looks out to 2050 and presents alternative scenarios or plausible portrays, of the future of the cattle sector in Ethiopia. It provides invaluable insights to decision-makers on actions to take today to make the Ethiopian cattle systems more robust and resilient to an uncertain future and sustainable from a social, environmental and public health perspective. It makes a strong case to broaden perspective and take a forward-looking approach when designing policies and investments in dynamic and rapidly changing societies, such as that of Ethiopia.

Due to growth in animal and human population, there will be increased risk of spread of zoonotic diseases (EIDs), including infectious emerging and re-merging diseases. Increased interaction with wildlife will further exacerbate this risk. Even in the best-case scenario, EID outbreaks have devastating consequences within and outside the livestock sector. Besides resulting in animal loss, production loss and human infections, outbreaks of emerging and re-emerging diseases can result in restriction of people’s movements, closure of businesses and public offices, trade bans, decrease in tourism, social unrest, and political instability.

Stakeholders should adopt a One Health approach to appreciate the relevance and efficiency of current policies dealing with priority zoonotic diseases, emerging infectious diseases, antimicrobial use and farming systems in urban and peri-urban areas. Making the current policy framework resilient to these anticipated changes is a pre-condition to ensure an expansion of the Ethiopian cattle sector that provides affordable and healthy milk and meat to the population while having minimal negative impact on the environment and public health.