New Zealand: Ups and downs of rising seas in a shaky nation
By Eloise Gibson
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New Zealand's terrain is so dynamic that it is moving up in some places and down in others as we speak, says Richard Levy, a senior scientist at GNS Science and the leader of the NZ Sea Rise programme. In some places, the coastline is rising enough that it virtually cancels global sea level rise, at least in the short term. In other places, it is falling enough to double the rate, or worse.
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Over the next few years, researchers in the Sea Rise programme (a collaboration between GNS, NIWA and Victoria University of Wellington) will marry the detailed InSAR measurements to global projections to give people better information for their own communities.
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Modelling by NIWA has found that, on average, every 10cm of sea level rise could expose 7,000 more New Zealand buildings to the risk of flooding in the event of a severe, once-in-a-hundred years storm tide. Because so many buildings, airports and roads are on the coastline, the biggest increased risk to New Zealand property will happen within 1m of today's storm tide line.
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One thing is already clear, says Levy: Relying solely on global averages could leave some people unprepared for their local reality. A threshold people may think is decades away could be reached much sooner -- or later. "You might be in for a surprise,” Levy says.