Protecting people from a changing climate: The case for resilience
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As part of our knowledge partnership with Race to Resilience at the UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) in Glasgow, we have built a detailed, global assessment of the number of people exposed to four key physical climate hazards, primarily under two different warming scenarios. This paper lays out our methodology and our conclusions from this independent assessment.
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Under a scenario with 1.5°C of warming above preindustrial levels by 2030, almost half of the world’s population could be exposed to a climate hazard related to heat stress, drought, flood, or water stress in the next decade, up from 43 percent today —and almost a quarter of the world’s population would be exposed to severe hazards. (For detailed explanations of these hazards and how we define “severe,” see sidebar “A climate risk analysis focused on people: Our methodology in brief.”) Indeed, as severe climate events become more common, even in a scenario where the world reaches 1.5°C of warming above preindustrial levels by 2050 rather than 2030, nearly one in four people could be exposed to a severe climate hazard that could affect their lives or livelihoods. Climate hazards are unevenly distributed. On average, lower-income countries are more likely to be exposed to certain climate hazards compared with many upper-income countries, primarily due to their geographical location but also to the nature of their economies. (That said, both warming scenarios outlined here are likely to expose a larger share of people in nearly all nations to one of the four modeled climate hazards compared with today.) Those who fall within the most vulnerable categories are also more likely to be exposed to a physical climate hazard.
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Many regions of the world are already experiencing elevated warming on a regional scale. It is estimated that 20 to 40 percent of today’s global population (depending on the temperature data set used) has experienced mean temperatures of at least 1.5°C higher than the preindustrial average in at least one season.
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Nonstate actors may have particular opportunities to help build resilience. For instance, insurance companies may be in a position to encourage institutions to build resilience by offering insurance products for those that make the right investments. This can lower reliance on public money as the first source of funding for recovery from climate events. Civil-engineering companies can participate in innovative public–private partnerships to accelerate infrastructure projects. Companies in the agricultural and food sectors can help farmers around the world mitigate the effects that climate hazards can have on food production—for example, offers of financing can encourage farmers to make investments in resilience. The financial-services sector can get involved by offering better financing rates to borrowers who agree to disclose and reduce emissions and make progress on sustainability goals. And, among other actions, all companies can work to make their own operations and supply chains more resilient.
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