More frequent, persistent, and deadly heat waves in the 21st century over the Eastern Mediterranean
This article provides nuanced projections of heat wave characteristics and their effect on human mortality over the Eastern Mediterranean. Heat waves were identified according to the 90th percentile threshold of the Climatic Stress Index (CSI), specifically tailored for the summer conditions in this region.
The researchers provide evidence that heat waves in the region are projected to occur seven times more often and last three times longer by the end of the 21st century. They find that heat waves will become more persistent in a warmer world. Finally, they offer a conservative estimate of excess mortality in Israel based on a simple linear model. The projected changes in heat stress intensity and frequency may result in ~330 excess deaths per summer at the end of the 21st century compared to the historical baseline of ~30 heat-related deaths, particularly pronounced in the elderly. They conclude that heat waves increasingly threaten society in the vulnerable Eastern Mediterranean.