Document / Publication

  • Do more with your content!Discover PreventionWeb Services
  • Multi-method evidence for when and how climate-related disasters contribute to armed conflict risk
    https://www.preventionweb.net/go/71163

    Email sent!

    An email has been sent to the email addresses provided, with a link to this content.

    Thank you for sharing!

    OK

Multi-method evidence for when and how climate-related disasters contribute to armed conflict risk

Source(s):  Elsevier

Climate-related disasters are among the most societally disruptive impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Their potential impact on the risk of armed conflict is heavily debated in the context of the security implications of climate change. Yet, evidence for such climate-conflict-disaster links remains limited and contested. One reason for this is that existing studies do not triangulate insights from different methods and pay little attention to relevant context factors and especially causal pathways. By combining statistical approaches with systematic evidence from QCA and qualitative case studies in an innovative multi-method research design, the paper shows that climate-related disasters increase the risk of armed conflict onset. This link is highly context-dependent and the study finds that countries with large populations, political exclusion of ethnic groups, and a low level of human development are particularly vulnerable. For such countries, almost one third of all conflict onsets over the 1980-2016 period have been preceded by a disaster within 7 days. The robustness of the effect is reduced for longer time spans. Case study evidence points to improved opportunity structures for armed groups rather than aggravated grievances as the main mechanism connecting disasters and conflict onset.



Add this content to your collection!

Enter an existing tag to add this content to one or more of your current collections. To start a new collection, enter a new tag below.

See My collections to name and share your collection
Back to search results to find more content to tag

Log in to add your tags
  • Multi-method evidence for when and how climate-related disasters contribute to armed conflict risk
  • Publication date 2020
  • Author(s) Ide, Tobias; Brzoska, Michael; Donges, Jonathan F. et al.
  • Number of pages 8 p.

Please note:Content is displayed as last posted by a PreventionWeb community member or editor. The views expressed therein are not necessarily those of UNDRR PreventionWeb, or its sponsors. See our terms of use