You are in the STAGING environment

Document / Publication

  • Do more with your content!Discover PreventionWeb Services
  • Very early warning signal for El Nino in 2020 with a 4 in 5 likelihood
    https://www.preventionweb.net/go/68811

    Email sent!

    An email has been sent to the email addresses provided, with a link to this content.

    Thank you for sharing!

    OK

Very early warning signal for El Nino in 2020 with a 4 in 5 likelihood

Source(s):  Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important driver of climate variability and can trigger extreme weather events and disasters in various parts of the globe. A network approach has been developed recently, which allows forecasting an El Nino event about 1 year ahead. Since 2012 this network approach, which does not involve any fit parameter, correctly predicted the absence of El Nino events in 2012, 2013 and 2017 as well as the onset of the large El Nino event that started in 2014 and ended in 2016. This model also correctly forecasted the onset of the last El Nino event in 2018. In September 2019, the same model indicated the return of El Nino in 2020 with an 80% probability.



Add this content to your collection!

Enter an existing tag to add this content to one or more of your current collections. To start a new collection, enter a new tag below.

See My collections to name and share your collection
Back to search results to find more content to tag

Log in to add your tags
  • Very early warning signal for El Nino in 2020 with a 4 in 5 likelihood
  • Publication date 2019
  • Author(s) Ludescher, Josef; Bunde, Armin; Havlin, Shlomo et al.
  • Number of pages 7 p.

Please note:Content is displayed as last posted by a PreventionWeb community member or editor. The views expressed therein are not necessarily those of UNDRR PreventionWeb, or its sponsors. See our terms of use