Flood 2020, trigger analysis: Bangladesh

This report discusses how advances in predictive analytics, using data and scientific models, allow the humanitarian community to mount a response before a predictable shock manifests into humanitarian needs. Taking such an anticipatory approach, where possible, will lead to a response that’s faster, more efficient, and more dignified.

In late June 2020, the Resident Coordinator in Bangladesh and the Emergency Relief Coordinator pre-approved and endorsed an anticipatory action framework and the corresponding Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) projects. Building on existing structures and experiences by the IFRC, WFP, and the Government, the pilot was set up within two months. The framework pre-established when and on what basis financing and action will be triggered ahead of a specific monsoon flooding peak; how much funding would go to which agency; and what activities the funding is being used for in what timeframe.

An integral part of the pilot was to document evidence and learning. This report is a contribution to that learning process on evaluating the forecast and triggers to contribute to learning. Forecasts at different lead times tend to predict different variables (e.g., seasonal rainfall vs 3-day rainfall totals), and it is critical to understand the relationship between the forecast itself and the hazard of interest (e.g., floods).