The costs of climate change in India: a review of the climate-related risks facing India, and their economic and social costs

This literature review finds that the economic costs of climate impacts in India are already immense. In 2020, a single event – Cyclone Amphan – affected 13 million people and caused over $13 billion in damage after it made landfall. One study suggests that declining agricultural productivity and rising cereal prices could increase India’s national poverty rate by 3.5% by 2040 compared to a zero-warming scenario; this equates to around 50 million more poor people that year. Lower-carbon development could yield immediate benefits such as cleaner air, greater energy security and rapid job creation. India’s climate targets are considered to be ‘2°C compatible’, i.e. a fair share of global effort. However, pursuing a cleaner, more resource-efficient path could stimulate a faster, fairer economic recovery and secure India’s prosperity and competitiveness in the long term.

This publication features four key messages: 

1. India is already feeling the impacts of climate change. Heatwaves are becoming more common and severe, with many cities reporting temperatures above 48°C in 2020.
2. The economic costs of climate impacts in India are already immense. In 2020, a single event – Cyclone Amphan – affected 13 million people and caused over $13 billion in damage after it made landfall.
3. Low-income and other marginalised groups are most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.
4. Lower-carbon development could yield immediate benefits such as cleaner air, greater energy security and rapid job creation.