The 3rd National Risk Assessment: Infrastructure on the Brink

This report provides the first ever nation-wide understanding of community vulnerability to flooding, taking into account the impact of a changing climate over the next 30 years. It will add the critical new dimension of proximity to flooding to personal evaluations of flood risk, providing an expanded understanding of risk based on the impact of flooding to the broader environment surrounding a home. This report accesses risk to: (1) residential properties; (2) roads; (3) commercial properties; (4) critical infrastructure (airports, fire stations, hospitals, police stations, ports, power stations, superfund/hazardous waste sites, water outfalls, and wastewater treatment facilities); and (5) social infrastructure (government buildings, historic buildings, houses of worship, museums, and schools). Risk in this report is quantified as the unique level of flooding for each infrastructure type relative to operational thresholds, as established by the federal government and other authoritative bodies.

This report finds that risk to residential properties is expected to increase by 10% over the next 30 years with 12.4 million properties at risk today (14%) and 13.6 million at risk of flooding in 2051 (16%). Additionally, 2.0 million miles of road (25%) are at risk today and that is expected to increase to 2.2 million miles of road (26%) over the next 30 years (a 3% increase over the next 30 years). Commercial properties are expected to see a 7% increase in risk of flooding from 2021 to 2051, with 918,540 at risk today (20%) and 984,591 at risk of flooding in 30 years (21%). Currently, 35,776 critical infrastructure facilities are at risk today (25%), increasing to 37,786 facilities by 2051(26% and a 6% increase in risk). Compounding that risk, 71,717 pieces of social infrastructure facilities are at risk today (17%), increasing to 77,843 by 2051 (19% and an increase of 9% over that time period).