Wet winters: A false lullaby against wildfires

At the time of this writing, in 2024 there have been 6,764 wildfires in California, which burned 1,006,333 acres. This is more than 68 times the acreage of Manhattan, nearly five times the acreage of New York City and more than three times the acreage of Los Angeles. The largest fires in California thus far include the Bridge Fire, which burned 54,878 acres and is currently 99% contained; the Borel Fire, which burned 59,288 acres; and the colossal Park Fire, which burned an astounding 429,603 acres.

Furthermore, the World Resources Institute reports that, globally between 2001 to 2023, "the area burned by wildfires increased about 5.4% per year" and that "forest fires now result in nearly 6 million more hectares of tree cover loss per year than they did in 2001 - an area roughly the size of Croatia." Also, according to the World Resources Institute, "nearly 12 million hectares - an area roughly the size of Nicaragua - burned in 2023, topping the previous record by about 24%," and fires now account for 33% of the global tree cover loss, up from 20% in 2021. Many more global wildfire statistics are available in the article, "State of Wildfires 2023-2024," in Earth Systems Science Data, a publication of Copernicus.org.

Many media articles and broadcasts report that the wet winter of 2023 to 2024 contributed to the magnitude and ferocity of the California fires, but why would a wet winter be a catalyst for spring, summer and autumn wildfires?

There is a common misperception that a wet winter would help reduce the number and ferocity of spring, summer and autumn wildfires, but it's generally quite the opposite. A wet winter nourishes the grass and other ground vegetation that is the primary fuel for wildfires. When a dry spring and summer and high winds follow a wet winter, it's usually a recipe for a difficult fire season. The lush grass and other ground vegetation that grew so well as a result of the wet winter dries during the spring and summer. The dry grass, combined with ignition, time for the fire to spread to the tree canopy creating a crown fire, and winds to fuel and spread the fire are the components of destructive wildfires.

A continuously wet climate, of course, would help against wildfires, but climate change is creating more weather extremes. Now, we have more rain in the winter, but substantially less in the summer, which makes the wildfire season more aggressive. Also, because more people are living in the wildland urban interface, more homes and lives are potentially and actually exposed to the threat of wildfires.

Wildfires are virtually guaranteed in many global locations, so, what can we do to help reduce, better contain or prevent them? There are many technologies and approaches now available and in development that can help reduce the number, severity and impact of wildfires. For example, small, solar-powered sensors are increasingly used to provide ultra-early fire detection. The sensors, mounted on trees and part of a network, can detect heat, smoke, gas and flames when fires are at an early stage, and alert responders before a fire is too large to easily contain.

Sensors mounted on trees can be paired with satellites, which of course provide a high-level view of a fire and the way it is spreading to best inform strategy for controlled burns and evacuations. Controlled burns of ground fuel can help stop wildfires from spreading or starting; when a fire reaches burned fuel such as burned grass, it usually can't spread further on the ground and can only spread when burning fuel is carried by winds.

There are more technologies being developed, partially inspired by the XPrize Wildfire competition, which challenges organizations to develop solutions that detect and suppress potentially destructive wildfires within 10 minutes. Such solutions include drone fleets that can fly below the tree canopy to extinguish fires on the ground. Sensors provide the ultra-early detection that then can alert firefighters to dispatch drones to extinguish a fire much faster than it would take for firefighters to arrive at the scene, by which time a fire already could have grown too large to be easily and quickly contained.

We need wet winters in California and globally; they're a much better alternative to the recent droughts and dangerously low water reservoirs in California resulting from dry winters. Since wet springs and summers are unlikely while we fight climate change, the best we can do is to prepare for wildfires and apply technology, so that destructive wildfires and their toll on property and life will be drastically reduced or eliminated.

Telecoms tech veteran and serial entrepreneur Carsten Brinkschulte is co-founder and CEO of impact tech startup Dryad Networks. The firm's large-scale IoT network for the ultra-early detection of wildfires will help to save the world's forests and fight climate change. Carsten's 20 years in mobile network infrastructure includes three successful exits: Core Network Dynamics (acquired by Twilio), Movirtu (acquired by Blackberry), and Synchronica (acquired by DAT Group).