Lightning alerts 'not enough' to save lives, say experts; rural areas still at risk
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The Revenue Secretary and Office of Relief Commissioner GS Naveen Kumar emphasised shifting from relief to resilience, with significant investment in disaster risk reduction. Interestingly, investments were made in the lightning alert system in 2023. Around Rs 500 crore were sanctioned in the disaster management budget, including Rs 35 crore, from the state.
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Professor Manoranjan Mishra, a Fakir Mohan University, said, "Research shows the ToA-based early warning system isn't effective. There are errors." He has researched lightning in India and developed a geospatial lab for the study. Mishra highlighted the limitations of current warning systems, "time of arrival (ToA) and Damini systems may not significantly reduce deaths. This is because lightning strikes are highly unpredictable. They can hit the ground directly or stay within the clouds, making it difficult to ensure comprehensive protection”.
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Mishra explained the challenges in forecasting lightning activity, “There are two main issues to understand. First, forecasting lightning requires precise location predictions, known as point forecasting, which currently has only about 20% accuracy. This low accuracy makes reliable predictions almost impossible. Second, effective forecasting needs to account for both cloud-to-cloud and cloud-to-ground lightning activity, which adds to the complexity”.
Addressing the margin of error, Margasahayam noted, "The margin of error in predicting lightning strikes ranges from 150 to 300 metres. Detection accuracy is usually around 70% to 85%."
The margin of error is critical in early warning systems. A 150-300 metre range may seem small, but it can make a fatal difference in populated areas or open fields. He added that to advance in lightning prediction, there needs to be a unified and high-quality network.
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