Climate change - a scapegoat or driver for the Po River’s downfall?
- The Po River is invaluable to Italy’s economy, agriculture, and society, and it is currently experiencing its worst drought in 70 years.
- Reduced water flows from climate change are causing negative effects, but water is also being overused by farmers and lost due to old utility infrastructure.
- Italian authorities, farmers, utilities, and civil society must share responsibility as water stewards to adapt to climate change.
The pre-Roman Ligures living in Italy’s Northern Region dubbed the mighty Po river (625 kilometers long) as Bodincus, which translates to ’bottomless’. Now, with five regions along its banks in a state of emergency fuelled by the worst drought in 70 years, the Po River is a shadow of its former self. The river’s banks have receded to reveal a desiccated bed and even old shipwrecks. It certainly has a bottom.
Effects of climate change on the river have been well documented, with experts pointing to the sparse rainfall and dry winters that have reduced the Po’s flow. There has been a cascading number of troubling consequences that researchers at the Italian Alpine Stream Research Centre have measured. Biodiversity is threatened by a drier river. Higher water temperatures, diminished oxygen, and reduced water flow are challenges to native organisms that cannot adapt. Instead, other opportunistic organisms that are normally found in polluted and stagnant water bodies take their place. Additionally, there is a disturbing increase in pathogens in the water, as the effluent from wastewater treatment plants is less diluted from the weakened flow rate. Local people are also dealing with the consequences, as the river’s hydroelectric power production has dropped by 40% and drinking water is now being rationed. To make things worse, the Adriatic sea has come about 19 kilometres inland from the Po estuary, causing burning of crops and salinating drinking water.
The drought has had negative effects on countless farmers in the Po River basin, who have been struggling to adapt to current water levels. The river has long supported vast swathes of agricultural land, accounting for 35-40% of Italian agricultural production. Produce grown includes rice, wheat, tomatoes, grapes, and more. The Po region is renowned for its wine and hosts the farms where the cattle produce the milk to make “Parmigiano Reggiano”, which is widely exported around the world. Now, in the midst of this generational drought, the Italian Farmers Confederation has warned of a 30 - 40% reduction in fruit and vegetable production.
Although the effects of rising temperatures are undeniable, at a closer analysis, overexploitation is as much to blame for the river’s demise as climate change. Agriculture is disproportionately responsible for water withdrawals in the Po River Basin, coming in at a staggering ~80%. Livestock like pigs and cows, and crops such as tomatoes, sugar and rice, all need large quantities of water. Since agriculture is the main land use in the basin, 7,700 km of artificial channels were built to support the vast irrigation infrastructure. Consider the Cavour Canal, an 86 km long feat of hydraulic engineering that opened in 1866 and carries water from the Po to the plains of Vercelli, Novara, and Lomellina for irrigation purposes. The Cavour Canal itself is capable of diverting up to 110m^3/s away from the Po, which has an average discharge of 1,500 m^3/s.
The prevailing irrigation techniques in the Po basin are surface irrigation and furrow irrigation, both of which are inefficient. These inefficiencies are amplified by crop types and water use efficiency. Rice is heavily produced, with over 60% of the 1.4 million tonnes of rice grown in a normal year being exported to the rest of Europe. The region is currently home to more than 4,000 rice farms, which are spread over 220,000 hectares (543,630 acres). Is it logical to continue to grow one of the most water-intensive crops in a water-stressed region? Future water withdrawals must take into account the water balance of the river. Otherwise, improper management of water resources, continued use of water-intensive crops (e.g. rice), and haphazard irrigation methods will lead to a dire future.
And while farmer incomes are expected to decrease overall, the impacts are often felt differently by farmers and consumers. A 2016 study in the Po River Basin revealed that some farmers, depending on geographical area and crop category, can even benefit from drought. This is because of increased prices caused by the scarcity of agricultural products. Researchers found that the negative impact of decreased production was counterbalanced by the positive impact of increased prices. Some farmers actually economically benefited from the 2003 and 2005-07 drought events. Whereas on the flip side, consumers always suffered from drought due to increased food prices and scarcity.
Finally, another lesser-mentioned factor is costly water leakages from ageing distribution systems. Consider the five regions with a state of emergency: Emilia-Romagna, Lombardy, Piedmont, Veneto and Friuli Venezia Giulia. In 2015, they each respectively lost 26.3%, 25.4%, 32.1%, 37.8%, and 45.0% of their treated drinking water in their leaky distribution networks. As a reference, the World Bank estimates developed countries to have an average of 15% water loss. While addressing these losses is tricky, perhaps the current water situation will incentivise preventive measures and better maintenance. Apart from the state of emergency, regions and basin authorities also need to improve infrastructure.
The Po valley experienced droughts in 2007, 2012 and 2017, and it is clear that climate change is making it a recurring challenge. However, the real crisis seems to be the lack of planning and effective policies in the water sector. Perhaps the Po River Basin would benefit from the EPIC Response, the new governance framework developed by the World Bank and Deltares aimed at managing both floods and droughts with a combined whole-of-society approach. Water-use reduction for businesses and farmers, coordinated action between the ministries, better allocation among users and conservation measures to make consumers use less water are all solutions that need to be integrated. After all, to ensure continued prosperity, Italian authorities, farmers, utilities, and civil society must share responsibility as water stewards to prepare for and adapt to climate change. At the European level, the common agricultural policy, which highly incentivized agriculture in EU’s member states, shall take a stronger direction towards improving water productivity for irrigation. More coherent EU policies will not only better align with the Water Framework Directive, but also ensure a sustainable supply of affordable food without overexploiting natural resources.