AgriLife research to help reduce flood risks in Central Texas

Watershed project in Coryell County to use predictive models to assess future floods.

An ongoing watershed project led by Texas A&M AgriLife Research is working to reduce flood risks for residents in Coryell County and surrounding areas.

The 30-month project, launched in February and funded by $4 million in disaster relief support from the Texas General Land Office, aims to mitigate long-term flood damage and strengthen community resilience associated with flooding in the Leon River Watershed and Cowhouse Creek Watershed.

“We hope to be able to predict floods before they happen,” said Raghavan “Srini” Srinivasan, Ph.D., resident director of the Texas A&M AgriLife Research and Extension Center at Temple and the project’s lead investigator. “Modeling tools can potentially inform county residents in real-time based on weather conditions and help county officials plan and respond to flooding more effectively.”

Srinivasan is a Distinguished Professor and Regents Fellow in both the Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering and the Department of Ecology and Conservation Biology and director of the Spatial Science Laboratory.

Complimenting AgriLife Research’s engineering and modeling efforts in the project, the The Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University will coordinate community engagement to support local voices contributing to final policy proposals presented to local, state and federal officials.

Tools to reduce flood risks

The watershed is primarily rural in upstream Eastland, Comanche and Hamilton counties, and transitions into heavily urbanized areas in downstream Coryell and Bell counties, including the growing cities of Gatesville, Killeen, Temple and Belton. The 475,000 population in those areas is projected to exceed 700,000 by 2045 with flood-prone areas including subdivisions, cattle-grazing pastures and a parts of Fort Cavazos.

Coryell County has experienced repeated flooding over the years, including the most recent event in spring 2024.

Srinivasan said the project goal is to provide county commissioners watershed information to help create and incorporate an advanced flood warning system. Additional stream level sensors and rain gauges will be placed to augment existing instrumentation to support the project and advanced warning system.

Watershed models could also inform decisions about infrastructure modifications to reduce the impact of flooding on residents.

“We need to be deliberate, and really listen to people, and make sure that people are comfortable with what could be done and trust it’ll be done correctly,” said Arnold Vedlitz, director of the Bush School’s Institute for Science, Technology and Public Policy.

Vedlitz said the ultimate goal is to create a blueprint for turning science-backed solutions and community perspectives into actionable policies, something that could benefit other communities across Texas and beyond.

“We want this to be transferrable,” he said. “We hope what we learn can help people around Texas and the country.”

Three major challenges

The project supports three major components to address some of these challenges:

• Develop surface and groundwater flow models for flood and water supply evaluations.
• Assess, develop and implement flood mitigation strategies.
• Evaluate and propose flood-related policy improvements.

Srinivasan said water flow models will support real-time flood prediction tools that will extend warning times to residents in at-risk areas. The models will also help assess future water supply conditions for public planning and consideration of population growth.

“Computer modeling will help us predict flood intensity and water depths based on rainfall within the watersheds,” he said. “This predictive capability will help protect lives, prevent property loss and help county officials make informed decisions about infrastructure and emergency preparedness.”