How risk blindness turned tropical storm Rohanu into a tragedy

Tropical storm Roanu hit Bangladesh on 21st May 2016. While it was not a big storm, the impact of Roanu surprised us all. Twenty-four people were killed. In the aftermath of the storm, devastation reports by government and local NGOs alarmed the humanitarian community. As head of emergency response for BRAC International, I travelled to two of the most affected areas - Upazilla - Kutubdia of Cox’s Bazar and Bashkhali of Chittagong district - a few days after the storm.

What I saw was devastation, losses and damage of assets and livelihoods at a scale nobody had anticipated.

The impact of Roanu should have been predictable and avoidable because the geographical, physical and political vulnerabilities of the affected areas are well known. The devastated zones are islands or districts located on the coast line. While Kutubdia and Bashkhali were protected by embankments, these were eroded and had not been maintained for a long time.

Individual decisions also played an important role: people are reluctant to evacuate and leave their assets, which are most valuable for the poorest families. Women often cannot leave their homes to go to shelters because they are forced to follow men’s decisions. Social pressure demand that they protect assets till death and there is not enough safe space for women to stay in the cyclone shelters.

As I wondered why affected communities failed to perceive the potential impact of the storm, I set out to understand the reasons behind such significant losses. I talked with children, women, elders, youths, farmers, salt-producers, day-laborers, traders, local government, NGO workers, teachers and education officers.

People shared that they did not take the cyclone warnings seriously and ignored them. They thought the tidal wave would not be very high and would not enter their shops and houses. Shelters and higher grounds were available to shift the goods of the shops, livestock, household items and children’s education materials in Kutubdia and Bashkhali. However people waited until the tidal wave hit their location.

I have found that three types of people followed the instruction of authorities to evacuate during the storm – those who have experienced a cyclone in their lifetime and lost family members and assets, mostly elders; those who are quick learners like children and youths; and those who received awareness sessions on disasters.

As we try to draw the lessons from this tragedy, one must wonder if we are investing enough in capacity building and awareness raising to change people’s behaviors. To address risk blindness and achieve our zero-death from cyclones target, my propositions are the following:

1. Rethink our existing model of communication which didn’t work for risk communication. Increase investment in awareness raising and behavioral changes to address risk blindness.

2. Roll out a clear scenario of inundation as the warning numbers do not give a clear idea of tidal surge and inundation to the communities, volunteers, local government and administration.

3. Reduce the physical and political vulnerabilities by reconstructing embankments, resilient houses and livelihood.

4. Invest more to build local capacity so that local government and communities can maintain the embankments.

5. Stop the destruction of natural protection zones like mangrove forests and social forests in the name of immediate profit of small influential groups.

Awareness raising and capacity building are critical to address risk blindness and avoid surprises in disasters. ROANU proved it.

Shashanka Saadi, as an expert of humanitarian works, DRR and Resilience, has managed programs and projects for 15 years with International NGOs and UN in Asia and Africa. Building on his experience to ensure resilience building and effective humanitarian response for communities, local and national actors, Shashanka is currently managing the Emergency Response Programme of BRAC International in Asia and Africa. Before joining BRAC International, Shashanka was the Emergency Response Adviser at Water Aid in Nepal after devastating earthquakes of 2015. Prior, he was the Director at Center for Research on Development & Market (CRDM), Conflict & Emergency Adviser and International Manager in Action Aid International and Project Manager-Team Leader in UNDP Bangladesh. He also worked at Action Aid Bangladesh and Care Bangladesh - in different capacities in country and abroad.

Mr. Shashanka brings with him a wealth of leadership experience in the field of Disaster Risk Management & Reduction (DRMR), Resilience and Humanitarian Response especially on community based emergency responses and budgeting, local leadership promotion, business performance analysis and management reporting. He completed his Masters in Sociology from University of Dhaka and the Fellowship on Leadership from Eisenhower Fellowship Programme, USA. While on fellowship, he met with experts in natural disaster mitigation and management of climate change effects and social communication. He is a regular contributor to knowledge sphere of DRR and Resilience. His articles on School based DRMR, Climate Adaptation and Emergency Response were published in different journals and newspapers.