Decision-makers in Kenya are keen to use forecasts to manage drought risk, but modifying existing systems to integrate anticipatory action poses challenges. To be sustainable, funding and policy frameworks must be more conducive to anticipatory action.

Climate science translators have the expertise to foster communication and collaboration between climate science, humanitarian decision-support, policy and decision making; however clear job profiles and established success criteria are needed.

The recent IPCC report ‘Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability’ highlights that extreme weather events are getting even worse – and faster than we thought. Anticipatory action was one of the solutions most commonly cited in the report.

Cold waves are an overlooked disaster, with few humanitarian agencies acting to tackle these impacts. Consultations indicated that much more could be done to reduce the vulnerability of those most at risk – including acting ahead of a forecast cold wave.

The USAID-supported Academic Alliance on Anticipatory Action stimulates deeper research into anticipatory approaches.

​​​​​​​Anticipatory action requires a shift in the humanitarian mindset. The Anticipation Hub is assembling the evidence. 

A Start Network evaluation in Pakistan looked at how local organizations add value, especially in advance of a crisis. It found that local actors could coordinate better with local authorities, consult with local businesses, and gain community trust.

Three new grants from Start Network aim to assist locally-led organisations in improving access to resources, supportive mechanisms and new forms of financing.

The risk of a drought every year is becoming increasingly likely. But should humanitarian agencies bet $140 million on it before it actually occurs? While scientific forecasts are more accurate, they do still contain some inherent uncertainty.