Document / Publication

  • Do more with your content!Discover PreventionWeb Services
  • Range-dependent thresholds for global flood early warning
    https://www.preventionweb.net/go/69036

    Email sent!

    An email has been sent to the email addresses provided, with a link to this content.

    Thank you for sharing!

    OK

Range-dependent thresholds for global flood early warning

Source(s):  Elsevier

This research describes a novel approach to estimate warning thresholds which retain statistical consistency with the operational forecasts at all lead times. The procedure is developed in the context of the Global Flood Awareness System. A 21-year forecast-consistent dataset is used to derive thresholds with global coverage and forecast range up to six weeks.

These are compared with thresholds derived from  a state of the art atmospheric reanalysis used to run the baseline simulation for the years 1986–2017 and to give a best guess of the present hydrological states. Findings show that the use of constant thresholds for 30-day flood forecasting, as in the current operational Global Flood Awareness System setup, is consistent throughout the entire forecast range in only 30% to 40% of the river network, depending on the flood return period.

Findings show that range-dependent thresholds, of weekly duration, are a more suitable alternative to time-invariant thresholds, as they improve the model consistency as well as the skills in flood monitoring and early warning, particularly over longer forecasting range.



Add this content to your collection!

Enter an existing tag to add this content to one or more of your current collections. To start a new collection, enter a new tag below.

See My collections to name and share your collection
Back to search results to find more content to tag

Log in to add your tags
  • Range-dependent thresholds for global flood early warning
  • Publication date 2019
  • Author(s) Alfieri, Lorenzo; Zsoter, Ervin; Harrigan, Shaun et al.
  • Number of pages 10 p.
  • ISBN/ISSN 2589-9155 (ISSN)

Please note:Content is displayed as last posted by a PreventionWeb community member or editor. The views expressed therein are not necessarily those of UNDRR PreventionWeb, or its sponsors. See our terms of use