Very early warning signal for El Nino in 2020 with a 4 in 5 likelihood

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important driver of climate variability and can trigger extreme weather events and disasters in various parts of the globe. A network approach has been developed recently, which allows forecasting an El Nino event about 1 year ahead. Since 2012 this network approach, which does not involve any fit parameter, correctly predicted the absence of El Nino events in 2012, 2013 and 2017 as well as the onset of the large El Nino event that started in 2014 and ended in 2016. This model also correctly forecasted the onset of the last El Nino event in 2018. In September 2019, the same model indicated the return of El Nino in 2020 with an 80% probability.