Toward a fire and haze early warning system for Southeast Asia

This study presents an assessment of the forecast skill of the integrated forecast system for fire and haze over four provinces in Borneo Island . The authors had developed an early warning system prototype in which three-month precipitation (August to October) is predicted during April to July. The forecasted precipitation amount is then translated into four fire danger ratings based on the relationship between precipitation amount and CO2 emission.

Four different downscaling methods, in accordance with the degree of utilising the seasonal climate prediction information, were developed and integrated into the prototype of the early warning system in order to improve predictability. The downscaling system is based on an open source license for further training and free distribution of the developed prototype.