A model of the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic during a hurricane in Virginia

In this report, the authors study the implications that a hurricane during the COVID-19 pandemic would have for the Commonwealth of Virginia. This analysis should help inform advance planning for the hurricane season in general and could be used in response to a specific storm with an estimated track through Virginia. The authors focus on the combined impacts of COVID-19 and a hurricane on morbidity and mortality; they do not examine other effects, such as effects on infrastructure, social networks, and the economy.

The vulnerability involved is the susceptibility to these threats and can be thought of in terms of storm, health, and socioeconomic vulnerabilities. Storm vulnerability is related to parts of the physical environment that would be adversely affected by a hurricane exposure, such as homes in a storm surge area, homes without floodproofing, and areas where roads are likely to be flooded. Health vulnerability is related to characteristics that make a person more susceptible to health threats, such as age and comorbidities. Socioeconomic vulnerability includes a lack of resources to evacuate in case of inclement weather; limited access to consistent, high-quality health care; and the inability to access social services because of barriers associated with language or other characteristics.