The future of excess mortality after COVID-19

Four years on from the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, many countries worldwide still report elevated deaths in their populations. Quantifying excess mortality has been an acute challenge since 2020 due to the exceptional mortality rates of the pandemic. Excess mortality refers to the number of deaths over and above an assumed "expected" number of deaths. The different methods of estimating expected mortality can generate very different excess mortality rates.

In this research, Swiss Re Institute projects excess mortality in the US and UK over the next 10 years under different scenarios, by analysing excess mortality trends globally and disaggregating the underlying factors driving them. The study finds that COVID-19 is still driving excess mortality both directly and indirectly. In the long term, lifestyle factors may compound this further. Insurers may wish to continue to monitor excess mortality and its underlying drivers in the general population closely, as well as the differences between general and insured populations.