Aligned climate drivers and potential impacts on food security in Ethiopia in 2024

This brief explores the climatic and food security outcomes of positive and negative El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phase alignment in different rainfall zones in Ethiopia, since 2000. During this time there have been two positive (El Niño and positive IOD) and two negative (La Niña and negative IOD) phase alignments.

Seasonal rains play a central role in food production for smallholder farmers and pastoralists in Ethiopia. Significant rainfall anomalies that result in drought, widespread crop failure and high livestock mortality are driven by positive and negative ENSO and IOD alignments. Since 2000, this occurred in 2002–2003, 2010–2011, 2015–2016 and 2020–2022 and resulted in poor and failed rains in one or more of Ethiopia’s rainfall zones, poor crop and livestock production, reduced household food security, and greatly increased numbers of people needing humanitarian assistance.