USA: Possible links between warming and tornadoes are still murky
New research finds connections between ocean temperatures and tornado activity
By Chelsea Harvey, E&E News
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Research published this week in Science Advances points to a link between sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico and April tornadoes in the southern Great Plains — part of "Tornado Alley." Active years with high numbers of tornadoes seem to be associated with times of cooler temperatures in parts of the central and eastern Pacific and warmer temperatures in parts of the northern Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico.
These patterns help to influence a large-scale atmospheric circulation system that favors the formation of supercell thunderstorms and sets up conditions for tornadoes to form.
The effect appears to be strong in April, but is much less certain in May, according to the study. As a result, researchers suggest that tornado forecasting may be easier during some parts of the spring tornado season than others.
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In general, climate change is expected to drive an increase in severe thunderstorms across much of the United States, which could theoretically increase tornado activity. But then again, the formation of a thunderstorm doesn't guarantee that tornadoes will come along with it.
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This article was originally published on E&E News.