NASA SPoRT’s lightning prediction tool provides critical weather forecasting support at Rock the South

On Friday, July 21st, 2023, over 35,000 people were denied entry to Rock the South’s outdoor country music festival in Cullman, Alabama at 3 P.M. due to the threat of lightning in the area.

This decision was heavily influenced by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center’s Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) new Lightning-Artificial Intelligence ( AI ) tool. This new technology can predict the probability of lightning up to 15 minutes in advance before a flash occur.

Meteorologists Huntir Cramer and Dan Dixon from the National Weather Service of Huntsville were stationed at Cullman County Emergency Management Agency Mobile Emergency Operations Center at Rock the South to provide operational weather support for the event. Both Cramer and Dixon utilized SPoRT’s Lightning-AI product to specifically forecast the threat of lightning on Friday afternoon.

“Summertime pop up convection can happen very quickly, so having any type of advance warning is extremely helpful especially with large outdoor events taking place,” says Cramer.

By using SPoRT’s new Lightning Viewer, which houses a suite of lightning products including the Lightning-AI, Cramer and Dixon used the viewer’s range ring tool to set up a defined milage perimeter around Rock the South.

“One storm that developed to the South-Southwest of the venue ended up congealing with the storm just to the North of it and started generating a lot of lightning,” says Dixon.

“As we saw the product’s probability of lightning increasing closer to the range ring around the venue, we knew this would cause a risk to the public’s safety,” says Cramer.

Dixon and Cramer quickly alerted Cullman County’s Emergency Management Agency that SPoRT’s Lightning-AI product was indicating a 50 percent chance of lightning striking close to the venue near 3 P.M.

This information caused the event coordinators of Rock the South to bar concertgoers from entering the venue so they could shelter in their vehicles.

Lightning did in fact occurred within 5 miles of the Rock the South venue during the time the venue was closed.

Cramer and Dixon continued monitoring the threat of lightning using NASA SPoRT’s Lightning-AI product and determined the threat of lightning was substantially decreasing during the 6 o’clock hour. This information led the event coordinators to open the venue at 6:30 P.M.

The idea behind SPoRT’s Lightning-AI product stems from NASA Marshall Lightning Research Scientist Dr. Christopher Schultz as his goal was to develop a product that could proactively predicting lightning before it occurs. Current guidance of “Thunder Roars Go Indoors” is reactive, meaning lightning is already occurring.

“By providing more lead time to predict lightning, in turn we can give the public more time to seek shelter, and be out of harm’s way of lightning,” says Schultz.

Schultz teamed up with Dr. Andrew White and Dr. Robert Junod, who support the NASA SPoRT project at the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) to develop the Lightning-AI product using machine learning techniques.

“The machine learning model was trained on a lot of data from previous events to learn the trends and patterns within the data that lead to lightning initiation. It then applies what it has learned to make predictions on future events,” says Andrew White.

This new technology was recently integrated into a freely accessible, interactive viewer, called Lightning Viewer, on NASA SPoRT’s website this past June with the help of NASA SPoRT’s Data Production team comprised of Lead Scientific Programmer Roger Allen and Software Developer Michael Antia of Jacobs Space Exploration Group.

Currently SPoRT’s Lightning-AI is only active near NASA Centers in support of NASA emergency managers; however, its utility has grown outside of the NASA ecosystem to support local National Weather Service offices and their partners in areas near NASA facilities.

Rock the South was the first time SPoRT’s Lightning-AI product was used to provide weather decision support for a large, public outdoor event. UAH’s Research Associate Kelley Murphy, an expert in lightning safety, and The National Weather Service Applications Integrations Meteorologist Kris White are integral members of NASA SPoRT’s Engagement Training and Assessment (ETA) team.

“SPoRT’s ETA team communicates frequently with end users of SPoRT products.” This engagement with end users, such as the National Weather Service of Huntsville, allows SPoRT’s ETA team to collect valuable feedback.

“We can use feedback from Huntir and Dan to tailor the product to their operational needs. We value their input and want to make sure that products like Lightning-AI are easy to use and help them with their forecasting and decision support tasks,” notes Murphy.

From the feedback provided, Murphy will work with SPoRT’s Data Production team to determine if changes to SPoRT’s Lightning Viewer need to be made. Murphy will also be hosting additional assessments with other NASA SPoRT stakeholders to gain more insight to optimize SPoRT’s Lightning-AI product to benefit multiple entities of the operational weather community.