Climate change increasing likelihood of extreme snowfall in the French Alps, research suggests
Global warming is often cited as having a negative impact on snow and ice melt in cold regions, yet new research published in The Cryosphere has suggested that extreme snowfall events may be a feature of some locations at higher latitudes and elevations in the decades to come.
Meanwhile, the warming effect at low-medium mountain elevations is predicted to instead enhance extreme precipitation, with a 7% increase in rainfall per 1°C of warming globally. This contrast is likely to have consequences for the communities living in these environments, who rely on the regularity of snowfall for livelihoods, such as tourism and the skiing industry, as well as being able to mitigate against hazards like avalanches.
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The scientists studied 23 massifs across the French Alps, inputting real data from ground measurements of temperature and daily precipitation and meteorological forecasts from 1951 to the present day in order to predict changes over the remainder of this century under +1°C of global warming.
They found that daily mean annual snowfall increased considerably at elevations above 3,600 m but decreased below 3,000 m, instead experiencing more precipitation, while over 100 years the average elevations decrease for both situations with increased snowfall above 3,300 m but reduced below 2,400 m.
In summary, this means the threshold at which the net balance of snowfall shifts above 0% changes from 3,000 m at +1.5°C warming to 3,300 m at +4°C for the annual mean, an elevation increase of 123 m per +1°C of warming, the steepest increase of which occurs above +3°C.
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