Multi-hazard risk assessment
This course deals with evaluating risks arising from natural and human-induced disasters. Risk is defined as the expected losses as a result of potentially damaging phenomena within a given time period and within a given area. It can be analysed by assessing three major components: the probability of an event with a certain magnitude, the vulnerability of the elements at risk (building stock, lifelines, critical facilities, population, economic activities) that are exposed to the event with a certain magnitude, and the costs relating to these elements at risk. Risk assessment forms an important input in disaster management, in the design of development plans, and in emergency response planning.
The course consists of the following main components: hazard assessment, elements at risk mapping, vulnerability assessment, risk assessment, and the combination of risk information from various hazard types in order to prioritize the areas for intervention.
The course will guide the participants through the entire process of risk assessment, on the basis of a case study of a city exposed to multiple hazards, in a developing country. Participants will be able to understand the concepts of hazard assessment, elements at risk mapping and vulnerability assessment and apply geo-information systems (GIS) in these procedures.
Upon completion of this course participants must be able to:
* understand the procedure for carrying out a multi-hazard risk assessment in different settings (urban and rural) and different types of hazards (slow versus rapid onset, geological, hydro-meteorological, ecological, technological etc)
* have insight in the data requirements for hazard assessment, elements at risk assessment, vulnerability assessment and loss estimation
* apply Remote Sensing for hazard assessment, and elements at risk mapping
* apply field data collection methods for hazard and vulnerability assessment, including the use of mobile GIS, and community based methods combined with GIS
* hands on experience with techniques for mapping and classifying elements at risk
* work with qualitative and quantitative risk scenarios for urban areas in a GIS
* carry out the various phases of risk assessment (including hazard assessment, element at risk mapping, vulnerability assessment)
* provide an overview of mitigation options and effect on risk reduction and distribution.
The following aspects will be covered:
* introduction to risk assessment
* introduction to the role of risk assessment in disaster management
* examples of risk assessment for different types of hazards
* introduction of various tools for loss estimation: RADIUS, HAZUS
* natural hazard assessment and zonation (magnitude, frequency and location relations versus type of hazard
* element at risk classification and mapping (most emphasis will be on urban environments)
* use of high resolution satellite imagery for elements at risk mapping
* vulnerability assessment (application of vulnerability curves for different types of events) physical vulnerability, social vulnerability
* capacity assessment; coping mechanisms; community-based approaches combined with participatory GIS
* cost estimation of elements at risk
* risk assessment (risk curve, annualised risk)
* multi-hazard risk assessment (combination of risk from different hazard types)
* application of risk assessment within the disaster management cycle.
* use of spatial multi criteria analysis to combine the results of different risk scenarios.
Central in the module is a project on the use of GIS for multi-hazard risk assessment in an urban environment. This project is based on a real world situation (a city in a developing country) in which different types of hazards occur within a small area. The project assumes that no cadastral or census data is available. High resolution imagery and Lidar data are used to generate elements at risk databases. Hazard assessment is carried out for technological hazards (fire and explosion), landslide hazard, flood hazard (based on hydraulic models) and earthquake hazards. The results are combined using multi-criteria evaluation in order to define the areas where priorities should be given in disaster risk reduction.