Fire following earthquake in the Montreal region

The Montreal region comprises more than 10% of Canada’s entire population and is a major economic driver and cultural centre of Canada. The Geological Survey of Canada assesses the Montreal region as having significant earthquake hazard and potential for ground motions that will cause significant damage to ordinary buildings and infrastructure.

Three scenario earthquakes – a magnitude 6.5 event centred in downtown Montreal and magnitude 7 events to the Northwest and Southwest of Montreal – were found to cause very strong ground motions in the study area, resulting in hundreds of breaks in the water distribution systems and hundreds of fires.

Accounting for fire department response, water system damage, weather and other conditions, the growth and ultimate final burnt area of fires were estimated and in summary found to result in median losses of between $10 billion and $30 billion. These are median estimates – there are smaller probabilities of greater or less damage and the range is a function of the specific earthquake scenario (i.e., location and magnitude), time of day, weather and other factors.

This loss would be largely insured and would have a very significant impact on the Canadian insurance industry. Fire losses would come on top of shaking and other losses, which would be insured to a lesser extent. This risk need not be tolerated and can be significantly reduced.

Making earthquake risk reduction a high priority by all concerned parties would be a necessary and salutary advance. Specific initial steps would include assessing the seismic vulnerability of emergency facilities and the water system including providing secondary water supply for high-rise buildings. Lastly, there is a large concentration of energy facilities in Montreal East, whose seismic vulnerability should be assessed.