The future of forecasts: impact-based forecasting for early action

This guide outlines the steps and tools needed to develop impact-based forecasting: from understanding risk to producing, issuing and verifying fit for purpose impact-based forecasts and warnings. Designed with, and for, people working in impact-based forecasting, early warning and early action, the compiled information and recommendations will be useful for everyone from technical staff in national hydrological and meteorological services to disaster risk management, humanitarian and development agencies.

The guide includes case studies from countries around the world to highlight the development and use of impact-based forecasting services for users and producers. This document aims to inspire the co-production of impact-based forecasting services that use weather, climate information, and risk analysis to reduce risk. The guide brings together the forecast-based financing methodology to trigger early action with the impact-based forecasting technical expertise of the UK Met Office and other experts in this field. Each chapter contains recommended steps and processes, as well as online resources for more detailed guidance.