3 years of COVID, 3 myths to debunk
This month marks three years since the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic. Three years on, the world is still struggling to respond to this ongoing threat and other connected crises, despite clear ways forward informed by decades of lessons from disease response.
The world remains woefully unprepared – unprepared to adequately respond to a health crisis of this magnitude, unprepared for other crises now and to come and unprepared to restore progress toward the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the pledge to leave no one behind.
Myth #1: COVID-19 is over
COVID-19 continues to claim and upend lives: it is the fifth leading cause of death globally since the beginning of 2020, and could be considered the third leading cause when accounting for unreported deaths. Over the last twelve months, the world accumulated an estimated 4 million excess deaths, mostly in low- and middle-income countries.
The threat of new variants and waves of infection has not diminished, nor has the potential severity of those variants. Still ongoing vaccine inequity exacerbates poor health outcomes, undermines the prospects of a fair recovery and saps hope that the next time will be any different.
Only one in three people in low-income countries have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, while those in high-income countries are accessing multiple boosters. These types of inequities contribute to a world where the COVID-19 death toll has been four times higher in lower-income countries than in high-income ones.
The longer-term impacts and risks of COVID-19 are not being addressed. At least 65 million people worldwide are estimated to have long COVID, with cases increasing daily as scientists continue to uncover more links to increased health risks; the socio-economic impact of this needs to be understood, and there is a need for treatment breakthroughs.
There is more than one kind of “long COVID” that requires our attention: knock-on socio-economic effects continue to impact those left furthest behind.
The gender gap in food insecurity more than doubled between 2019 and 2021. Younger generations have been affected by a range of COVID-19 related problems and must grapple with increased social, economic and health risks due in part to school disruptions.
Myth #2: Pandemic prevention and preparedness diverts resources away from other priorities
Pandemic prevention does not divert resources – our failure to prevent and prepare for pandemics does. COVID-19 is expected to cost the global economy US$12.5 trillion through 2024, hundreds of times more costly than what it would have taken to invest in preventative measures.
The risk of another pandemic is increasing by 2 percent with every year, and this is being exacerbated by an accelerating climate emergency. Recent surges in polio and mpox – two other public health emergencies of international concern – and H5N1 bird flu developments represent just a fraction of this threat. Chronic under-investment in prevention and preparedness, strained health systems, fatigue from COVID-19 and the rush to declare victory over this pandemic means we are more vulnerable than ever to another pandemic.
Investments in pandemic prevention and preparedness are essential for increasing resilience against broader social, economic and environmental shocks. Resilient, sustainable and modern systems for health increase access to services and help minimize disruptions to care during crisis and calm. Digitizing COVID-19 vaccine supply chain and data systems and scaling up of digital solutions, for example, has already shown a range of immediate benefits including the integration of data to support greater vaccine equity and access.
Myth 3: More promises would be enough to solve this
The pandemic has exposed the frailty of existing systems and their inability to adequately and equitably protect. Lack of inclusive social protection programmes, shrinking civic space, inequities among and within countries and other systemic challenges have contributed to unequal outcomes that continue to threaten lives, livelihoods and development progress.
Health is under threat. By 2027, only one in three countries – a majority being high-income – is expected to increase health spending significantly over pre-COVID-19 levels. Between 2022 and 2026, it is estimated that developing countries will have financing needs of $2.5 trillion, and if these needs are not met, ensuing debt crises could increase poverty while hampering recovery efforts.
With the upcoming UN high-level meetings on universal health coverage (UHC), pandemic preparedness and tuberculosis, plus the negotiations on the pandemic instrument, we have a historic opportunity to connect the dots across UHC and pandemic preparedness and response. Linking pandemic preparedness to the integrative power of UHC is a crucial step, as is ensuring that all people everywhere have access to the health care they need, where and when they need it.
COVID-19 exposed – and continues to expose – our dangerous lack of preparedness.
Three years into COVID-19, and with other accumulating threats and risks, we must chart a different course by investing in and scaling innovative solutions that put equity and access first and leave no one behind.