Using foresight techniques in longer-term disaster risk management
The report examines the use of foresight techniques in the context of long-term disaster risk management. In an era of complex disasters, it is essential to anticipate and prepare for emerging risks through a comprehensive risk assessment that includes foresight techniques. These techniques, such as horizon scanning and scenario building, allow the identification of key drivers of change and the analysis of the impact of different future disaster conditions.
The report highlights how foresight techniques can support adaptive, preventive or preparedness actions for impending disruptive events. Key objectives include improving the capacity for risk assessment, anticipation and planning for disaster risk management in order to develop preventive measures. However, the legal framework for carrying out foresight analysis in the context of disaster risk management is still underdeveloped.