Uncertain but inevitable: The expert-policy-political nexus and high-impact risks

This report exposes gaps in New Zealand’s risk management ecosystem and argues that countries need to rethink how they prepare for and manage high-impact risks. The report also discusses risk assessment and perception, cognitive bias, and explores issues of accountability.

It discusses how risk management is an essential function of governments, through which they are expected to protect citizens and environmental, infrastructural, and economic assets against major hazards and threats. The public places responsibility with their national and local governments to avoid certain classes of risk or to manage their impacts within acceptable boundaries. However, all levels of political governance struggle with determining the appropriate level of investment necessary to prepare for or mitigate the negative consequences of rare but foreseeable, high-impact events. The issue needs to be under constant review and revision, yet governments and societies remain poorly prepared for such events. Often the risk class has been recognised within expert communities as important, but the necessary protective, resilience-enhancing and preparative measures have not been taken.