Disaster and political trust: a natural experiment from the 2017 Mexico City earthquake

This study examines whether disasters can impact general political trust and if disaster relief efforts can mitigate effects related to political trust. Political trust is foundational to democratic legitimacy, representative governance, and the provision of effective public policy. Various shocks can influence this trust, steering countries onto positive or negative trajectories.

The authors investigate the relationships between disaster, trust, and aid using novel survey data collected before and after a 7.1-magnitude earthquake struck Mexico City in September 2017. The findings reveal that the disaster resulted in an 11% decrease in general political trust. Additionally, they demonstrate that geographical proximity to disaster relief efforts may counterbalance this decline in trust. This study contributes to the scholarship on the politics of disasters and offers policy implications, highlighting the role of disaster assistance in potentially restoring general political trust after a disaster.