Model shows New Zealand should expect 15-meter tsunami every 580 years
A team of geographers, Earth scientists and environmental scientists affiliated with several institutions in New Zealand, working with that country's National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, has found that it is possible to model the number and type of tsunamis that are likely to strike a given area over a given period of time.
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They then ran simulations covering 30,000 years of simulated history showing all the likely earthquakes that have struck the region during that time. It showed 2,585 earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 7.0 to 9.25. The model also showed which subduction zones are likely to be the source of earthquakes causing locally generated tsunamis. They then calculated the size of tsunamis based on earthquake strength and found that the largest would likely be approximately 28 meters. The model also suggested that New Zealand is likely to experience a tsunami of at least five meters every 77 years, and one of 15 meters every 580 years.
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