GAR 2015 Main Report

266

Chapter 13

Notes

1 http://www.socialprogressimperative.org/data/spi.
2 For more information on the limitations of CBA and BCRs as well as an analysis of recent studies, see Shreve and Kelman, 2014

Shreve, C.M. and I. Kelman. 2014,Does mitigation save? Reviewing cost-benefit analyses of disaster risk reduction, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Vol. 10, Part A (December): 213-235.. .

; Mechler et al., 2014.
3 There is little information available on how to reasonably estimate the costs of disaster risk reduction activities that span structural and non-structural approaches and include direct and indirect costs as well as those arising from integrating risk considerations in development practice (Vorhies, 2012

Vorhies, Francis. 2012,The economics of investing in disaster risk reduction, Working paper based on a review of the current literature commissioned by the Secretariat to the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR). Geneva.. .

). However, based on similar estimates for climate change adaptation (IPCC, 2014

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2014,Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Working Group II. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press.. .

; IBRD and World Bank, 2011

World Bank. 2011,Dar es Salaam Case Study Overview, Climate Change, Disaster Risk and the Urban Poor: Cities Building Resilience for a Changing World. The World Bank, Washington, D.C.. .

), this estimate can be considered to be conservative.
4 If the discount rate were changed to 10 per cent, total savings by 2030 would still be US$2.4 trillion. While it is common to use a discount rate of 3-5 per cent when assessing the BCRs of social development investments (see http://cbkb.org/toolkit/discounting/), the majority of CBAs for disaster risk reduction projects use a single discount rate of 10-12 per cent or a range of rates between 0 and 10 or 0 and 20 per cent (Shreve and Kelman, 2014

).
5 http://www.socialprogressimperative.org/data/spi.
6 http://www.emergencymgmt.com/disaster/Chief-ResilienceOfficers.html (accessed 11 January 2015).
7 http://www.un.org/climatechange/summit/wp-content/ uploads/sites/2/2014/09/RESILIENCE-1-in-100-initiative.pdf (accessed 11 January 2015).
8 Chris Lavell, commentary during UNISDR-UNDP-FLACSO meeting in San José, GAR15 meeting series on the Future of Disaster Risk Management, March 2014.
9 www.avaaz.org.
10 http://bangladeshaccord.org.
11 For example, see the results of recent surveys such as the Edelman Trust Barometer 2014, which states that “Overall, trust in leadership has plateaued. […] CEOs and government leaders remain at the bottom of the list for both Informed and General Publics, with extremely low trust levels on key metrics” (http:// www.edelman.com/insights/intellectual-property/2014edelman-trust-barometer).
12 http://www.un.org/climatechange/summit.

in development practice that will include not just quantitative values, but qualitative indicators of fundamental changes in ethics, morality, equity, efficiency, participation and accountability. From that perspective, disaster risk reduction has the potential to become a truly transformational force.

The reduction of poverty, the improvement of health and education for all, the achievement of sustainable and equitable economic growth and the protection of the health of the planet now depend on the management of disaster risks in the day-to-day development decisions of governments, companies, investors, civil society organizations, households and individuals. Strengthened disaster risk reduction, therefore, is essential to make development sustainable.

	266 Chapter 13 Notes 1 http://www.socialprogressimperative.org/data/spi. 2 For more information on the limitations of CBA and BCRs as well as an analysis of recent studies, see Shreve and Kelman, 2014 x Shreve, C.M. and I. Kelman. 2014,Does mitigation save? Reviewing cost-benefit analyses of disaster risk reduction, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Vol. 10, Part A (December): 213-235.. . ; Mechler et al., 2014. 3 There is little information available on how to reasonably estimate the costs of disaster risk reduction activities that span structural and non-structural approaches and include direct and indirect costs as well as those arising from integrating risk considerations in development practice (Vorhies, 2012 x Vorhies, Francis. 2012,The economics of investing in disaster risk reduction, Working paper based on a review of the current literature commissioned by the Secretariat to the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR). Geneva.. . ). However, based on similar estimates for climate change adaptation (IPCC, 2014 x IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2014,Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Working Group II. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press.. . ; IBRD and World Bank, 2011 x World Bank. 2011,Dar es Salaam Case Study Overview, Climate Change, Disaster Risk and the Urban Poor: Cities Building Resilience for a Changing World. The World Bank, Washington, D.C.. . ), this estimate can be considered to be conservative. 4 If the discount rate were changed to 10 per cent, total savings by 2030 would still be US$2.4 trillion. While it is common to use a discount rate of 3-5 per cent when assessing the BCRs of social development investments (see http://cbkb.org/toolkit/discounting/), the majority of CBAs for disaster risk reduction projects use a single discount rate of 10-12 per cent or a range of rates between 0 and 10 or 0 and 20 per cent (Shreve and Kelman, 2014 x Shreve, C.M. and I. Kelman. 2014,Does mitigation save? Reviewing cost-benefit analyses of disaster risk reduction, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Vol. 10, Part A (December): 213-235.. . ). 5 http://www.socialprogressimperative.org/data/spi. 6 http://www.emergencymgmt.com/disaster/Chief-ResilienceOfficers.html (accessed 11 January 2015). 7 http://www.un.org/climatechange/summit/wp-content/ uploads/sites/2/2014/09/RESILIENCE-1-in-100-initiative.pdf (accessed 11 January 2015). 8 Chris Lavell, commentary during UNISDR-UNDP-FLACSO meeting in San José, GAR15 meeting series on the Future of Disaster Risk Management, March 2014. 9 www.avaaz.org. 10 http://bangladeshaccord.org. 11 For example, see the results of recent surveys such as the Edelman Trust Barometer 2014, which states that “Overall, trust in leadership has plateaued. […] CEOs and government leaders remain at the bottom of the list for both Informed and General Publics, with extremely low trust levels on key metrics” (http:// www.edelman.com/insights/intellectual-property/2014edelman-trust-barometer). 12 http://www.un.org/climatechange/summit. in development practice that will include not just quantitative values, but qualitative indicators of fundamental changes in ethics, morality, equity, efficiency, participation and accountability. From that perspective, disaster risk reduction has the potential to become a truly transformational force. The reduction of poverty, the improvement of health and education for all, the achievement of sustainable and equitable economic growth and the protection of the health of the planet now depend on the management of disaster risks in the day-to-day development decisions of governments, companies, investors, civil society organizations, households and individuals. Strengthened disaster risk reduction, therefore, is essential to make development sustainable.	Page 1 Page 10 Page 20 Page 30 Page 40 Page 50 Page 60 Page 70 Page 80 Page 90 Page 100 Page 110 Page 120 Page 130 Page 140 Page 150 Page 160 Page 170 Page 180 Page 190 Page 200 Page 210 Page 220 Page 230 Page 240 Page 250 Page 256 Page 257 Page 258 Page 259 Page 260 Page 261 Page 262 Page 263 Page 264 Page 265 Page 266 Page 267 ->Page 268 Page 269 Page 270 Page 271 Page 272 Page 273 Page 274 Page 275 Page 276 Page 277 Page 278 Page 279 Page 280 Page 290 Page 300 Page 310