GAR 2015 Main Report

158

Part II - Chapter 8

failure in one link in the chain limits its effectiveness and can even lead to failure across the entire system (UNISDR, 2011a

UNISDR. 2011a,Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: Revealing Risk, Redefining Development, Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR.. .

;

WMO, 2014a

WMO (World Meteorological Organization). 2014a,Synthesis of the Status and Trends With the Development of Early Warning Systems, Background Paper prepared for the 2015 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR..
Click here to view this GAR paper.

). Coupled with continuously improving mobile connectivity and the increasing pervasiveness of hazard monitoring and forecasting information, crowdsourcing has now disrupted that concept and opened the door to more horizontally integrated and organically evolving systems.

Early warning of vulnerability and risk?

At the same time, however, many of the challenges to effective early warning described in the past still persist (UNISDR, 2009a

UNISDR. 2009a,Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: Risk and Poverty in a Changing Climate, Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR.. .

). While major advances have been made in hazard monitoring and forecasting and in the issuing of warnings (EEA, 2013

European Environment Agency. 2013,Late lessons from early warnings: science, precaution, innovation, European Environment Agency Report No. 1. Chapter 15: Floods: Lessons about Early Warning Systems.. .

), progress in integrating the appropriate risk information and risk management strategies

into early warning and preparedness has lagged behind ( GAR 13 paper

WMO, 2014a

;

Molinari et al., 2013

Molinari, Daniela, Francesco Ballio, Nicola Berni and Claudia Pandolfo. 2013,Towards more effective Early Warning Systems: The Italian Experience, Input Paper prepared for the 2015 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR..
Click here to view this GAR paper.

There are still major gaps in hazard monitoring, particularly in low-income countries, which are often challenged to maintain the necessary technical and institutional infrastructure. Similarly, there may be inadequate links and coordination between geological and hydro-meteorological services and disaster risk management organizations. Some low-income countries lack the institutional and technical capacities to develop a multi-hazard, multi-sector and multi-level approach to early warning ( GAR 13 paper

WMO, 2014a

; Molinari et al., 2014).

Warnings are still not standardized within and across countries, meaning that they may be

Box 8.4 Advances in flood early warning in Europe and Africa

Belgium’s early warning system, which has been operating for a decade, is based on advanced real-time monitoring and forecasting technology which provides high-resolution flood risk maps, while simulation models are used for impact assessment. Warnings are sent out by SMS and e-mail and published on a web portal, which is frequently visited by the public during floods. The 24/7 early warning system operators collaborate closely with the civil protection crisis management team, which in turn is linked to a multi-sector and multi-scale response mechanism. However, dynamic maps of flooded areas are still lacking, and as the system is largely top-down, many local authorities and civil protection committees are still unfamiliar with the information generated by the system. Preparedness in general remains limited.

Egypt’s early warning system is based on historical analyses of storm and flash flood events, while local knowledge of exposed areas is used as a qualitative data source. The system has been successful in issuing alerts for flash floods on the basis of rainfall forecasts. Warnings are communicated to the disaster management authorities, and as a result timely actions such as setting up roadblocks or releasing overflow water from dams have been taken on the basis of agreed decision-making protocols. However, the system faces operational and technical challenges, for example due to power cuts and weak cooperation with local communities.

Mali’s early warning system is largely based on a good understanding of the underlying drivers of flood risk and the impact of flooding on local economies and on biodiversity; this information is presented in a flood risk atlas for local use. Flood maps and forecasts are developed using satellite images of flooded areas, and warnings are issued with a long lead time by telephone, radio and the web.6 Although the early warning system is still being tested, resolution and accuracy need to be improved, and scenarios on food security and disease outbreaks are yet to be included, the system heavily involves local communities. Early warning information based on and packaged for end-user needs includes local knowledge and supports the traditional practice of decision-making based on local pastoral calendars and practices, thus blending modern science with traditional risk management know-how.

(Source:

Cools and Innocenti, 2014

Cools, Jan and Demetrio Innocenti. 2014,Flood early warning in practice: Lessons learned from a comparative analysis, Input Paper prepared for the 2015 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR..
Click here to view this GAR paper.

	158 Part II - Chapter 8 failure in one link in the chain limits its effectiveness and can even lead to failure across the entire system (UNISDR, 2011a x UNISDR. 2011a,Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: Revealing Risk, Redefining Development, Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR.. . ; WMO, 2014a x WMO (World Meteorological Organization). 2014a,Synthesis of the Status and Trends With the Development of Early Warning Systems, Background Paper prepared for the 2015 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR.. Click here to view this GAR paper. ). Coupled with continuously improving mobile connectivity and the increasing pervasiveness of hazard monitoring and forecasting information, crowdsourcing has now disrupted that concept and opened the door to more horizontally integrated and organically evolving systems. Early warning of vulnerability and risk? At the same time, however, many of the challenges to effective early warning described in the past still persist (UNISDR, 2009a x UNISDR. 2009a,Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: Risk and Poverty in a Changing Climate, Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR.. . ). While major advances have been made in hazard monitoring and forecasting and in the issuing of warnings (EEA, 2013 x European Environment Agency. 2013,Late lessons from early warnings: science, precaution, innovation, European Environment Agency Report No. 1. Chapter 15: Floods: Lessons about Early Warning Systems.. . ), progress in integrating the appropriate risk information and risk management strategies into early warning and preparedness has lagged behind (WMO, 2014a x WMO (World Meteorological Organization). 2014a,Synthesis of the Status and Trends With the Development of Early Warning Systems, Background Paper prepared for the 2015 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR.. Click here to view this GAR paper. ; Molinari et al., 2013 x Molinari, Daniela, Francesco Ballio, Nicola Berni and Claudia Pandolfo. 2013,Towards more effective Early Warning Systems: The Italian Experience, Input Paper prepared for the 2015 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR.. Click here to view this GAR paper. ). There are still major gaps in hazard monitoring, particularly in low-income countries, which are often challenged to maintain the necessary technical and institutional infrastructure. Similarly, there may be inadequate links and coordination between geological and hydro-meteorological services and disaster risk management organizations. Some low-income countries lack the institutional and technical capacities to develop a multi-hazard, multi-sector and multi-level approach to early warning (WMO, 2014a x WMO (World Meteorological Organization). 2014a,Synthesis of the Status and Trends With the Development of Early Warning Systems, Background Paper prepared for the 2015 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR.. Click here to view this GAR paper. ; Molinari et al., 2014). Warnings are still not standardized within and across countries, meaning that they may be Box 8.4 Advances in flood early warning in Europe and Africa Belgium’s early warning system, which has been operating for a decade, is based on advanced real-time monitoring and forecasting technology which provides high-resolution flood risk maps, while simulation models are used for impact assessment. Warnings are sent out by SMS and e-mail and published on a web portal, which is frequently visited by the public during floods. The 24/7 early warning system operators collaborate closely with the civil protection crisis management team, which in turn is linked to a multi-sector and multi-scale response mechanism. However, dynamic maps of flooded areas are still lacking, and as the system is largely top-down, many local authorities and civil protection committees are still unfamiliar with the information generated by the system. Preparedness in general remains limited. Egypt’s early warning system is based on historical analyses of storm and flash flood events, while local knowledge of exposed areas is used as a qualitative data source. The system has been successful in issuing alerts for flash floods on the basis of rainfall forecasts. Warnings are communicated to the disaster management authorities, and as a result timely actions such as setting up roadblocks or releasing overflow water from dams have been taken on the basis of agreed decision-making protocols. However, the system faces operational and technical challenges, for example due to power cuts and weak cooperation with local communities. Mali’s early warning system is largely based on a good understanding of the underlying drivers of flood risk and the impact of flooding on local economies and on biodiversity; this information is presented in a flood risk atlas for local use. Flood maps and forecasts are developed using satellite images of flooded areas, and warnings are issued with a long lead time by telephone, radio and the web.6 Although the early warning system is still being tested, resolution and accuracy need to be improved, and scenarios on food security and disease outbreaks are yet to be included, the system heavily involves local communities. Early warning information based on and packaged for end-user needs includes local knowledge and supports the traditional practice of decision-making based on local pastoral calendars and practices, thus blending modern science with traditional risk management know-how. (Source: Cools and Innocenti, 2014 x Cools, Jan and Demetrio Innocenti. 2014,Flood early warning in practice: Lessons learned from a comparative analysis, Input Paper prepared for the 2015 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR.. Click here to view this GAR paper. .)	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