GAR 2015 Main Report

181

consumption, which is still largely dependent on fossil fuels and manifests as increased greenhouse gas emissions. While greenhouse gas emissions by Annex I 4 countries to the Kyoto Protocol decreased by 9.3 percent between 1990 and 2011,5 global emission levels rose over the same time period and well into 2013 (WMO, 2014b

WMO (World Meteorological Organization). 2014b,WMO Greenhouse Bulletin, The State of Greenhouse Gases in the Atmosphere Based on Global Observations through 2013. No. 10, 9 September 2014.. .

), resulting in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases exceeding pre-industrial levels by around 40 per cent (IPCC, 2013

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2013,Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Full Report. Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley, eds. Camb. .

). The emissions of almost 50 per cent of all countries exceed the currently established global thresholds (UNDP, 2014b

UNDP (United Nations Development Programme). 2014b,Human Development Report, Sustaining Human Progress: Reducing Vulnerabilities and Building Resilience. New York.. .

). As a result, through changing temperatures, precipitation and sea levels, among other factors, global climate change feeds back into modifications in hazards and magnifies disaster risks. Climate change transfers risk as many of the territories most affected are those which have contributed least to greenhouse gas emissions. But at the same time, climate change is a meta-risk driver, as both its causes and consequences are global.

Overconsumption

Economic growth also relies on the increasing consumption of environmental resources, including freshwater, forest and marine resources. Of the 140 countries for which data is available, 59 per cent show an ecological footprint that is above global biocapacity, and 49 out of 172 countries withdraw more fresh water than the global threshold allows (UNDP, 2014b

UNDP (United Nations Development Programme). 2014b,Human Development Report, Sustaining Human Progress: Reducing Vulnerabilities and Building Resilience. New York.. .

). Many ecosystems that play vital protective and provisioning roles are being degraded beyond the point of recovery, which can magnify hazard levels, increase vulnerability and challenge resilience. Like climate change, the consumption of environmental resources is a reflection of inequality. Many sectors and territories with high levels of income live beyond their means and rely on the consumption of environmental resources from other areas.

Changing demographies

Demographic change, including shifts due to migration and displacement, also influences

disaster risk patterns and trends. By 2050, the world’s population will have increased to 9.2 billion (Lutz et al., 2014

Lutz, W., W.P. Butz and Samir K.C., eds. 2014,World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-first Century, Oxford: Oxford University Press.. .

) and the percentage of the ageing population (over 60) in high-income countries is expected to reach 32 per cent (UNDESA, 2013

UNDESA (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs). 2013,World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, Volume I: Comprehensive Tables. United Nations, New York.. .

). While the global population is expected to peak at 9.4 billion around 2070 and start to decline slowly by the end of the century (Lutz et al., 2014

Lutz, W., W.P. Butz and Samir K.C., eds. 2014,World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-first Century, Oxford: Oxford University Press.. .

), countries and regions with rapidly growing, young populations are likely to see increasing hazard exposure, particularly in urban areas. Given the specific disaster risks posed by demographic change, countries and regions with ageing and declining populations are likely to see increases in vulnerability and reductions in resilience.

The drive for competitiveness

Within the current development paradigm, both businesses and countries continuously strive to remain competitive. By reducing labour costs in the case of businesses or spending on social welfare and protection in the case of governments, the drive to remain competitive and to attract investment may increase the vulnerability and reduce the resilience of large sectors of the labour force. Conversely, however, the drive to increase energy and resource efficiency in order to reduce costs spurs investment in technologies that can reduce greenhouse gas emissions and relieve ecosystems.

Non-linearity and uncertainty

These global drivers of risk are closely interrelated and concatenated, and they are increasingly shaping local realities like the situation in Mumbai. The perception of increasing complexity, interconnectivity and dependency of local realities on global processes erodes the capacity of local stakeholders to manage their risks and increases uncertainty and unease. Given the multiple feedback loops between these different drivers and their non-linearity, even slight changes in the evolution of any one driver can generate unexpected and radical changes in another. As uncertainty and unease replace certainty and

	181 consumption, which is still largely dependent on fossil fuels and manifests as increased greenhouse gas emissions. While greenhouse gas emissions by Annex I 4 countries to the Kyoto Protocol decreased by 9.3 percent between 1990 and 2011,5 global emission levels rose over the same time period and well into 2013 (WMO, 2014b x WMO (World Meteorological Organization). 2014b,WMO Greenhouse Bulletin, The State of Greenhouse Gases in the Atmosphere Based on Global Observations through 2013. No. 10, 9 September 2014.. . ), resulting in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases exceeding pre-industrial levels by around 40 per cent (IPCC, 2013 x IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2013,Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Full Report. Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley, eds. Camb. . ). The emissions of almost 50 per cent of all countries exceed the currently established global thresholds (UNDP, 2014b x UNDP (United Nations Development Programme). 2014b,Human Development Report, Sustaining Human Progress: Reducing Vulnerabilities and Building Resilience. New York.. . ). As a result, through changing temperatures, precipitation and sea levels, among other factors, global climate change feeds back into modifications in hazards and magnifies disaster risks. Climate change transfers risk as many of the territories most affected are those which have contributed least to greenhouse gas emissions. But at the same time, climate change is a meta-risk driver, as both its causes and consequences are global. Overconsumption Economic growth also relies on the increasing consumption of environmental resources, including freshwater, forest and marine resources. Of the 140 countries for which data is available, 59 per cent show an ecological footprint that is above global biocapacity, and 49 out of 172 countries withdraw more fresh water than the global threshold allows (UNDP, 2014b x UNDP (United Nations Development Programme). 2014b,Human Development Report, Sustaining Human Progress: Reducing Vulnerabilities and Building Resilience. New York.. . ). Many ecosystems that play vital protective and provisioning roles are being degraded beyond the point of recovery, which can magnify hazard levels, increase vulnerability and challenge resilience. Like climate change, the consumption of environmental resources is a reflection of inequality. Many sectors and territories with high levels of income live beyond their means and rely on the consumption of environmental resources from other areas. Changing demographies Demographic change, including shifts due to migration and displacement, also influences disaster risk patterns and trends. By 2050, the world’s population will have increased to 9.2 billion (Lutz et al., 2014 x Lutz, W., W.P. Butz and Samir K.C., eds. 2014,World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-first Century, Oxford: Oxford University Press.. . ) and the percentage of the ageing population (over 60) in high-income countries is expected to reach 32 per cent (UNDESA, 2013 x UNDESA (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs). 2013,World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, Volume I: Comprehensive Tables. United Nations, New York.. . ). While the global population is expected to peak at 9.4 billion around 2070 and start to decline slowly by the end of the century (Lutz et al., 2014 x Lutz, W., W.P. Butz and Samir K.C., eds. 2014,World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-first Century, Oxford: Oxford University Press.. . ), countries and regions with rapidly growing, young populations are likely to see increasing hazard exposure, particularly in urban areas. Given the specific disaster risks posed by demographic change, countries and regions with ageing and declining populations are likely to see increases in vulnerability and reductions in resilience. The drive for competitiveness Within the current development paradigm, both businesses and countries continuously strive to remain competitive. By reducing labour costs in the case of businesses or spending on social welfare and protection in the case of governments, the drive to remain competitive and to attract investment may increase the vulnerability and reduce the resilience of large sectors of the labour force. Conversely, however, the drive to increase energy and resource efficiency in order to reduce costs spurs investment in technologies that can reduce greenhouse gas emissions and relieve ecosystems. Non-linearity and uncertainty These global drivers of risk are closely interrelated and concatenated, and they are increasingly shaping local realities like the situation in Mumbai. The perception of increasing complexity, interconnectivity and dependency of local realities on global processes erodes the capacity of local stakeholders to manage their risks and increases uncertainty and unease. Given the multiple feedback loops between these different drivers and their non-linearity, even slight changes in the evolution of any one driver can generate unexpected and radical changes in another. As uncertainty and unease replace certainty and	Page 1 Page 10 Page 20 Page 30 Page 40 Page 50 Page 60 Page 70 Page 80 Page 90 Page 100 Page 110 Page 120 Page 130 Page 140 Page 150 Page 160 Page 170 Page 171 Page 172 Page 173 Page 174 Page 175 Page 176 Page 177 Page 178 Page 179 Page 180 Page 181 Page 182 ->Page 183 Page 184 Page 185 Page 186 Page 187 Page 188 Page 189 Page 190 Page 191 Page 192 Page 193 Page 194 Page 195 Page 200 Page 210 Page 220 Page 230 Page 240 Page 250 Page 260 Page 270 Page 280 Page 290 Page 300 Page 310