GAR 2013 Main Report

(Source: IPCC, 2012

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2012.,Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation., Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernemental Panel on Climate Change (Field, C.B., V.Barros, T.F.Stocker, D.Qin, D.J.Dken, K.L.Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (eds.). Cambrid, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA.,. .

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Box 6.1 Special IPCC Report appraises and addresses future climate extremes

The Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change presented the latest results from current research on climate change. The more science progresses in the field, the more it is possible to produce analysis that can delineate future climate patterns with higher degrees of confidence. Main conclusions of the report include the following:

Substantial warming in temperature extremes by the end of the 21st century.

Virtually certain

Very likely

Mean sea level rise will contribute to upward trends in extreme coastal, high water levels.

Likely

Increased frequency of heavy precipitation or the proportion of total rainfall from heavy falls will increase in the 21st century over many areas of the globe. Increase in tropical cyclone maximum wind speed, though not in all ocean basins.

High confidence

Changes in heat waves, glacial retreat and/or permafrost degradation will affect high mountain phenomena such as slope instabilities, movements of mass and glacial lake outburst floods. Many glacierand snow-fed rivers will experience increased run-off and earlier spring peak discharge.

Medium confidence Reduction in the number of extra-tropical cyclones averaged over each hemisphere.

Droughts will intensify in some regions, including southern Europe and the Mediterranean, central Europe, Central North America, Central America, Mexico, north-east Brazil and southern Africa.

principal greenhouse gases—carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide—have increased by 39 percent, 158 percent and 20 percent, respectively (WMO, 2011

WMO (World Meteorological Organization). 2011.,The State of Greenhouse Gases in the Atmosphere Based on the Global Observations through 2010., Greenhouse Gas Bulletin., Geneva,Switzerland.. .

As Box 6.1 shows, increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere modifies climate, although uncertainties remain regarding the repercussions in weather and climate-related hazards in different regions (IPCC, 2012

Increased combustion of fossil fuels, deforestation and land-use changes are directly linked to the capital flows and investment decisions of the past and to growing green-house gas emissions in the present and future. Industry contributes directly and indirectly about 37 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, and these have increased by 65 percent since 1971 (Worrell et al., 2009

Worrell, E., Bernstein, L., Roy, J., Price, L. and Harnish, J. 2009.,Industrial energy efficiency and climate change mitigation., Energy Efficiency (2009) 2: 109-123.. .

). Production of energy-intensive industrial goods, in particular, has increased dramatically since 1970 (cement, by 336 percent; aluminium, by 252 percent; steel, by 95 percent; ammonia, by 353 percent; and paper, by 190 percent) (Ibid.). But emissions from

energy production, transport, agriculture and urbanisation are also critical. And as this chapter highlights, other factors such as wild-land fires, which are often associated with deforestation, also make critical contributions.

For more than a century, high-income countries have been contributing to these emissions. However, as a consequence of economic globalisation, many low and middle-income countries are now becoming large greenhouse gas (GHG) emitters. Given that climate change modifies climate and weather-related hazards, it becomes the ultimate mechanism of global risk transfer and of generating shared risks. It represents the privatisation of benefits that accrue from present investment at the expense of future losses that will surface from climate change later in this century. It also represents a transfer or export of disaster risk from countries responsible for the majority of emissions to those that have fewer emissions but will see their disaster risks increase. Figure 6.1 compares the ratio of GHG emissions with expected losses from cyclonic wind damage. Many countries with