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Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2013
From Shared Risk to Shared Value: the Business Case for Disaster Risk Reduction |
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Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2013
From Shared Risk to Shared Value: the Business Case for Disaster Risk Reduction |
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science and data to provide greater accuracy. By 2015, the model should also include global risk estimates for flooding, storm surges, volcanic ash and tsunamis. Box 3.1 presents a proof of concept for the global flood model.
3.2
Earthquake risk
Absolute earthquake risk is concentrated in high-income countries. But many small and lowincome countries have a higher proportion of their urban produced capital at risk.
Total global annual average loss (AAL) for earthquakes is estimated at more than US$100 billion. As Figure 3.3 shows, these economic risks are highly concentrated in countries with large volumes of
exposed produced capital and high earthquake hazard.
As highlighted in the previous chapter, given investment decisions and capital flows, global produced capital remains heavily concentrated in high-income countries. Therefore, the highest absolute levels of earthquake risk are also found in these countries, which is where approximately 80 percent of global AAL is concentrated.
In terms of regional distribution, about 76 percent of total global earthquake AAL is concentrated in Asia, 9 percent in Europe, 8 percent in North America and 5 percent in Latin America.
Figure 3.4 shows the distribution of earthquake AAL for countries in different risk classes. For example, the value of urban produced capital in Japan and
(Source: GAR global risk model)
Figure 3.3 Annual average loss (AAL) from earthquakes and earthquake hazard (250 year return period)
Earthquake AAL
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