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Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2013
From Shared Risk to Shared Value: the Business Case for Disaster Risk Reduction |
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Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2013
From Shared Risk to Shared Value: the Business Case for Disaster Risk Reduction |
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(Source: UNISDR, based on Jones Lang LaSalle (2013))
Figure 8.1 Direct commercial real estate investment, 2007–2012
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tainable urban development is becoming a compelling value proposition for business, particularly when it is structured through partnerships with the public sector (Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics, 2011
Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics. 2011.,Global construction 2020: A global forecast for the construction industry over the next decade to 2020., London,UK.. . 8.2
The new wave of urbanisation
More investment in infrastructure and the built environment will be required over the next 40 years than has occurred over the last 4 millennia. Consequently, the construction and real estate development sectors are estimated to grow by almost 70 percent by 2020.
The world is increasingly urban. i By 2050, the world’s urban population (including those living in small urban centres) will represent about 70 percent of a projected global population of 9 billion.ii The proportion of the labour force in the industry and services sector, which has now reached 65 percent, has grown at approximately the same rate as the urban population (Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics, 2011
Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics. 2011.,Global construction 2020: A global forecast for the construction industry over the next decade to 2020., London,UK.. . The urban population of sub-Saharan Africa is expected to grow from 298 million in 2010 to 596 million in 2030 and 1,069 million in 2050 (United Nations, 2012). The urban population of India is expected to grow from 379 million in 2010 to 606 million in 2030 and 875 million in 2050. Other regions and countries with high, expected growth include North Africa and China.
Historically, this represents a major shift in the distribution of the world’s urban population and its largest cities. In 1970, the urban population of Europe represented 30.5 percent of world urban population; by 2050, this figure will have dropped to 9.5 percent. In contrast, the urban population of subSaharan Africa represented only 4.1 percent of world urban population in 1970; by 2050, it is expected to increase to 17.1 percent (Ibid.).
Clearly this new wave of urbanisation represents a major business opportunity. More investment in infrastructure and built environment will be required over the next 40 years than has occurred over the last 4 millennia (WEF, 2012
WEF (World Economic Forum). 2012.,The Global Competitiveness Report 2012-2013., World Economic Forum., Geneva,Switzerland.. . Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics. 2011.,Global construction 2020: A global forecast for the construction industry over the next decade to 2020., London,UK.. . One estimate projects investment in urban development to increase by 67 percent—from US$7.2 trillion in 2011 to US$12 trillion by 2020 iii (Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford economics, 2011). A total of US$97.7 trillion will be spent on construction globally during the next decade and by 2020, construction will account for 13.2 percent of world GDP (Ibid.).
Analysis of the commercial real estate sector also shows that after the financial crisis of 2007–2008, investment has bounced back to over US$400 billion globally in 2012 (Figure 8.1).
Although a huge business opportunity, this investment represents a challenge for disaster risk reduction. Much of this new urbanisation will unfold in hazard-exposed countries such as India and in regions with weak disaster risk management capacities, as in sub-Saharan Africa.
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