GAR 2013 Main Report

102 Part I - Chapter 6

soil. And soil water deficiency can further increase land degradation through the loss of vegetation cover. Areas that are experiencing both land degradation and high levels of soil water deficiency are more at risk of desertification, which represents an often irreversible loss of natural capital ( GAR 13 paper

Erian et al., 2012

Erian, W., Katlan, B., Ouldbedy, B., Awad, H., Zaghtity, E. and Ibrahim, S. 2012. ,Agriculture Drought in Africa and Mediterranean., Background Paper prepared for the 2013 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction., Geneva,Switzerland.
Click here to view this GAR paper.

; Watson et al., 2005; WMO, 2005

WMO (World Meteorological Organization). 2005.,Climate and Land Degradation., WMO n°. 989., Geneva,Switzerland.. .

As Figure 6.9 shows, large areas of Africa, the Arab states and the Mediterranean region experienced both drought hazard and land degradation between 2000 and 2010. Contrary to loss estimated from wild-land fires, the loss of natural capital and ecosystem services owing to drought and land degradation has not yet been calculated.

6.7

Agricultural drought losses

and impacts

The scale of direct losses and indirect impacts from agricultural droughts is still poorly understood. Estimated yield reductions, however, point to significant losses. For example, a one– in–ten year drought in Mozambique would lower the maize yield by 6 percent and the GDP by 0.3 percent. Niger has a 1 in 10 probability of suffering a loss of more than 10 percent of expected millet production.

The contribution of agriculture to GDP is in decline (Yumkella et al., 2011

Yumkella, K., Kormawa, P., Roepstorff, T. and Hawkins, A. 2011.,Agribusiness for Africa’s Prosperity., UNIDO., Vienna,Austria.. .

), but agriculture continues to be the main source of income and employment for many households living below US$1 per day. In subSaharan Africa, for example, the agricultural share of GDP has decreased from 42 percent in 1965 to 12 percent in 2008 (Ibid.). At the same time, agriculture generates two-thirds of total employment and more than 75 percent of the value of domestic trade (Ibid.). In Ethiopia, for example, although the sector contributes 44 percent of the country’s GDP, 85 percent of the population is employed in agriculture (Spielman et al., 2011

Spielman, D.J., Kelemwork, D. and Alemu, D. 2011.,Seed, Fertilizer, and Agricultural Extension in Ethiopia., Ethiopia Strategy Support Programme II Working Paper 020 (March 2011)., Addis Ababa and Washington: International Food Policy Research Institute.,. .

Because of its complexity, accurate and complete global data on crop losses from agricultural drought do not exist. And many losses associated with localised droughts are not documented. However, the magnitude of losses can be gauged from specific events.

For example, direct and indirect losses from the 2008–2011 droughts in Kenya were approximately US$12.1 billion, which are estimated to have caused a reduction of GDP of 2.8 percent per year during that period (Cabot Venton et al., 2012

Cabot Venton, C., Fitzgibbon, C., Shitarek, T., Coulter, L. and Dooley, O. 2012.,The Economics of Early Response and Disaster Resilience: Lessons from Kenya and Ethiopia., Economics of Resilience Final Report. June 2012.. .

). Similarly, the 1998–2000 droughts are estimated to have caused a 16 percent reduction in GDP during each year of that period (Ibid.).

During the 2008–2009 drought in the Syrian Arab Republic, 75 percent of farmers suffered total crop failure ( GAR 13 paper

Erian et al., 2012

). Between 2005 and 2009, production of barley in the region fell by 40 percent. This production failure was exacerbated by the absence of natural pasture and the doubling of feed prices. Given that barley is the primary feed for many cattle, this led to a reduction in livestock (FAO, 2009

FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization). 2009.,FAO’s role in the Syria drought response plan 2009., Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO)., Rome,Italy.. .

). Consequently, the estimated number of sheep dropped from 22.9 million heads in 2007 to 19.2 million heads in 2008 (NAPC, 2009

NAPC (National Agricultural Policy Center). 2009.,Syrian Agricultural Trade 2008-2009., Ministry of Agriculture and Agrarian Reform, Syrian Arab Republic.. .

Innovative new probabilistic models of agricultural drought risk (see Box 6.3 above) are now providing a clearer picture of potential crop losses at the country level and can be related to relevant economic indicators. As with other hazards, a probabilistic approach is required given that many droughts that could potentially occur have not yet done so.

In Mozambique, agriculture contributes 25 percent of GDP (World Bank, 2011

World Bank. 2011.,The changing Wealth of Nations : Measuring Sustainable Development in the New Millennium., Washington DC,. .

). The probabilistic model estimates that the country risks losing, on average, 0.12 percent of its GDP every year owing to the probable loss of 3 percent of its total maize production due to drought ( GAR 13 paper

Jayanthi and Husak, 2012

Jayanthi, H. and Husak, G.J. 2012.,A probabilistic approach to assess agricultural drought risk., Background Paper prepared for the 2013 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction., Geneva,Switzerland: UNISDR..
Click here to view this GAR paper.

). A one–in–ten year drought in Mozambique would lower the maize yield by 6 percent and GDP by 0.3 percent (Figure 6.10).