Predicted poverty levels in hazard-prone countries in 2030

Projected poverty levels in 2030 in countries ranking highest on the multi-hazard (earthquakes, cyclones, droughts, extreme heat and floods) index © Shepard et al. (2013)


Up to 325 million extremely poor people will be living in the 49 most hazard-prone countries in 2030, the majority in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. By 2030, 11 countries will have high numbers of people in poverty, high multi-hazard exposure as well as inadequate capacity to minimise the impacts: Bangladesh, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Nepal, Nigeria, Pakistan, South Sudan, Sudan and Uganda.

Discounting earthquake and cyclone exposure, and assessing just drought, extreme temperature and flood hazards alone, reveals that between 176 and 319 million extremely poor people will be living in the 45 countries most exposed to these hazards by 2030. This is a major concern as drought and flood hazards are among the most potent shocks when it comes to causing long-term impoverishment.

The figure shows a set of countries with the highest exposure to five hazards (earthquakes, cyclones, droughts, extreme heat and floods) in 2030, plotted against their 'vulnerability to poverty', which is a measure of the risk they face of future poverty when presented with shocks. The circles indicate projected poverty numbers for each of the countries in 2030 assuming a baseline projection. This graphic does not account for the capacity of each country to manage disaster risk.

Disaster risk management has to be at the heart of poverty eradication efforts. Without this, the target of ending poverty may not be within reach.


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