Cascading climate impacts: a new factor in European policy-making

This policy brief from the CASCADES project sets out the challenge the European Union faces in factoring in cross-border and cascading climate impacts as it revises its climate adaptation strategy and manages its external relations.

Impacts of climate change – such as droughts, floods, wildfires and sea-level rise – can have knock-on effects that cross borders and continents. With its strong links to the rest of the world, Europe is exposed not only to the regional effects of a changing climate, but also the fallout from those materialising elsewhere. The effects can cascade and sometimes escalate through security relations, international trade, financial markets, international aid operations as well as migration. However, Europeans are only beginning to recognize the risks, and possible opportunities, associated with these impacts.

To assess these risks and formulate effective responses demands the involvement of experts and decision-makers in areas such as political science, market regulation and banking who are not normally involved in climate policy discussions. The European Green Deal and the EU’s actions on adaptation to climate change must recognize cross-border climate impacts and prepare to integrate risk management measures into a much wider group of policies, ranging from trade to welfare.