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'This is not a "what if" story': Tokyo braces for the earthquake of a century
By Daniel Hurst
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The last great quake to hit Tokyo was in 1923. Experts estimate the next one is due roughly a century on, with an estimated 70% chance of a magnitude-7 quake hitting Tokyo before 2050. It is no longer a question of if but when the big one will come.
The impact would be devastating. According to an official estimate, a magnitude-7.3 quake striking northern Tokyo Bay could kill 9,700 people and injure almost 150,000. There would be an expected peak of 3.39 million evacuees the day after the disaster, with a further 5.2 million stranded, while more than 300,000 buildings could be destroyed by the earthquake itself or the ensuing fires.
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Tokyo has come a long way since 1923. If any city is prepared for an earthquake, it is this one. The hi-tech skyscrapers are designed to sway, the parks feature hidden emergency toilets and benches that turn into cooking stoves, and the city has the world’s largest fire brigade, specifically trained to prevent the kind of flash blazes that spread after earthquakes.
But the problem with earthquakes is that they undermine the very things you do to prevent them. And with Tokyo now seeing millions of tourists a year, and expecting millions more for the Rugby World Cup this year and the Olympics in 2020, the city is ripe for panic in the event of a disaster.
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“In the event of a big earthquake here … there would be significant damage to critical infrastructure such as electricity, gas, water,” [Robin Takashi Lewis, a Tokyo-based specialist in disaster preparedness and response,] says. After a major quake, the Tokyo metropolitan government says it aims to restore power within a week, water supply in a month and gas within two months. “When you have a city this big and your basic lifelines are out, that’s a very significant problem.”
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