Using climate models to predict resilience of energy systems in Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia is well acquainted with the impact of climate change, but less so with the resilience of energy systems. A collaborative and regional approach to climate modelling of energy systems can inform the development of effective adaptation policies and drive deeper energy integration.
Southeast Asia is well aware of the human, financial and economic tolls that climate change has brought, but insufficient attention has been paid to the energy systems of the region. Climate change poses two types of challenges to energy systems. First, climate change will impact the availability of resources used for energy generation. For example, inconsistent water flow is expected to reduce hydropower capacity in Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam. Heat waves and droughts will influence the availability of water required for cooling thermal power systems, thereby reducing generation capacity. Secondly, extreme weather events pose threats to physical infrastructures, including power plants and electricity grids. Increasing intensity and frequency of wildfires, flooding, heavy winds, landslides and storms will threaten transmission grids and renewable energy technologies. Between 2009-2020, natural hazards resulted in more than 33,000 fatalities and economic damages exceeding US$97 billion in the region.
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Due to the enormity of environmental threats, climate adaptation is becoming increasingly relevant in the development of energy projects. Early policy intervention on adaptation is particularly important in Southeast Asia, given that the region will need to invest around US$80-150 billion annually by the late 2020s to meet its clean energy targets. Environmental hazards may also impact the region’s ambitious cross-border energy interconnection projects.
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