Too much of a good thing: Damaging atmospheric rivers likely to increase flood risk

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While atmospheric rivers are the primary ingredient, a flood recipe includes several others. Warmer storms cause more moisture to fall as rain rather than snow, increasing the runoff into streams and rivers and the risk of rain-on-snow flooding. The average elevation in the Tahoe Basin is around 7,000 feet, right in the range of where the rain-snow line typically falls, which makes flood forecasting in our region especially challenging. 

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We can mitigate the impacts of flooding by taking steps now to prepare and adapt. Improving storm forecasting and monitoring, along with research that helps to better understand how soils and snowpack contribute to flooding, will enable us to better predict future floods.

Additionally, local governments can invest in improvements to ‘hard’ infrastructure (e.g., transportation, power, communications, flood protection) and restoring ‘soft’ infrastructure (e.g., forest, floodplain, wetland ecosystems). Emergency services can invest in improvements to early warning systems and emergency preparation and response coordination. Residents can make their homes more flood-resistant by elevating utilities, increasing drainage, and using sandbags. Land use planning can help to reduce the risk of flooding by avoiding development in flood-prone areas.

Understanding the potential flood impacts, specifically on historically underserved areas, can promote proactive flood mitigation efforts. A new project in the region, called ARkStorm@Tahoe 2.0 , will look at the flooding from a hypothetical month-long sequence of atmospheric rivers in the Truckee River Watershed, projecting impacts to our infrastructure and structures and identifying the most affected populations.

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